- Crystal Palace is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Newcastle.
- Crystal Palace has lost four of the last five EPL Saturday day matches at home.
- My Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle prediction rests on Newcastle injury news.
Looking for a third win in their last four matches, Newcastle United travels to Selhurst Park for a meeting with Crystal Palace.
The Magpies saw a two-game winning streak ended on Monday with a 2-0 home defeat against West Ham United. That leaves Newcastle on 18 points, good for ninth in the league.
Palace, as heavy road underdogs, earned a 2-2 road draw against Aston Villa last Saturday. Still, Oliver Glasner’s side sits 19th in the Premier League table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle prediction.
Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | -0.5 (+120) | 2.5 (-135) | +130 |
| Crystal Palace | +0.5 (-175) | 2.5 (+100) | +195 |
| Draw | +240 |
Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle Prediction
If Crystal Palace remain without Eberechi Eze and Newcastle starts midfielder Bruno Guimaraes, my Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle prediction is the Newcastle Moneyline (+130).
Monday’s result for Eddie Howe’s side strikes me as…odd. Newcastle is normally so good at home and off extended rest that I almost treat it as a fluke result.
Before that game, Newcastle played two matches in which they finished far and away the better side.
As home dogs against an admittedly shorthanded Arsenal, Newcastle won 1-0 with a +1.3 post-shot xGDiff, per fbref.com.
They followed it with a trip to Nottingham Forest, capturing a 3-1 win with a +1.4 post-shot xGDiff.
Now they get a Crystal Palace team which rank super lucky in that 2-2 draw against Aston Villa.
Expected goals finished 3.0-1.3 in Villa’s favor, while post-shot xG gave Villa a 2.8-1.9 edge over Palace.
That marks the fourth time in the last five games Palace has conceded at least 1.5 expected goals. Glasner’s side has also earned results three times in six home fixtures this year.
But the key to this match is Guimaraes. Since 2022, Newcastle haven’t won a match outright without the midfielder.
With Guimaraes playing and Dan Burn back in defense, I place a lot more trust in the Newcastle defense.
Pair that with Palace’s weak defensive metrics, and I like Newcastle, which matches a historically profitable system.
Since 2012, road favorites off a loss against a previous underdog are 73-36 SU, assuming two factors:
- The favorite’s win percentage falls between 31% and 59%
- The closing moneyline falls between -200 and +151
Even when those favorites fall between +121 and +151, they’re 17-14 SU.
As a result, it’s Newcastle or nothing for me on Saturday.
