- Everton is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Bournemouth.
- Everton earned four points from six last season against Bournemouth.
- I predict Bournemouth will do no worse than a point on Saturday.
Everton looks for their first goal of the season on Saturday as they welcome Bournemouth to Goodison Park.
The Toffees experienced a second straight horrific result on Matchday 2. Sean Dyche’s side lost 4-0 to Tottenham after falling 3-0 to Brighton on Matchday 1.
As for Bournemouth, a late winner against Newcastle was questionably ruled out. That led to Bournemouth’s second straight draw.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Everton vs. Bournemouth Odds, Premier League
- Everton Moneyline: +165
- Bournemouth Moneyline: +155
- Draw Moneyline: +240
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-130/-110)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-160), No (+110)
Everton vs. Bournemouth Prediction: Game Spread
My prediction for Saturday’s game is Bournemouth Draw, No Bet (-125).
It’s going to go from bad to worse for Everton, who have lost two straight with a -7 goal differential.
Historically, teams with bad defensive results early don’t earn outright wins.
Since 2012, previous dogs in games 3-13 that have allowed three or more goals in two straight games are 17-54 SU with 34 losses to their names.
It gets worse.
When the team is an underdog, they drop to 5-40 SU. In those games, opponents are 31-4-5 (W-D-L).
Granted, those generally aren’t short underdogs — only 12 of those underdogs closed +250 or shorter — but there are simultaneous systems suggesting Bournemouth wins.
Favorites in the first nine games of the season that take money are 71.2% SU, assuming three factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was +0 or +1
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -8 and -1
- The opponent was the underdog in the previous game.
Even when those favorites are -115 or shorter, they’re still 63.5% SU and have dropped all three points only four times in 28 matches.
Plus, although Bournemouth drew 1-1 against Newcastle — a side miles ahead of Everton in my Premier League Power Rankings — there’s a case they were the better team.
Expected goals finished 2.3 to 1.7 in the Cherries’ favor, per fotmob.com.
It should be acknowledged they played at home, but it’s difficult to see a scenario where Bournemouth drops all three points after that outlay.
Take the visitors with push protection on the draw.
Everton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 24 at Tottenham: 0-4, L
- Aug. 17 vs. Brighton: 0-3, L
- Aug. 10 vs. Roma: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Preston: 3-0, W (Friendly)
- July 30 at Coventry: 0-3, L (Friendly)
Bournemouth Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 25 vs. Newcastle: 1-1, D
- Aug. 17 at Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D
- Aug. 10 vs. Girona: 3-2, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 4 vs. Rayo Vallecano: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- July 24 at Arsenal: 1-1, D (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Everton odds and Bournemouth odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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