- Fulham is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Everton.
- Fulham has lost three of its last four EPL Saturday matches as a home favorite.
- My Fulham vs. Everton prediction is the Fulham moneyline.
Two teams off negative results meet Saturday in London as Fulham hosts Everton.
Fulham traveled to Aston Villa on Matchday 35 and fell 1-0. That marks the fourth loss for manager Marco Silva’s side in their previous six league fixtures.
Everton cruised to a 2-0 advantage over Ipswich Town last weekend. However, the Toffees blew the lead in the second half to extend their winless run to three matches in a row.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Fulham vs. Everton prediction.
Fulham vs Everton: Premier League Odds
- Fulham Moneyline: -118
- Everton Moneyline: +320
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-102/-135)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-115), “No” (-125)
Everton vs Fulham: Prediction
Based on Fulham’s improving record as a home favorite, my Fulham vs Everton prediction is the Fulham Moneyline (-118).
This match is a difficult one to handicap as, historically, it’s a profitable spot to back Fulham as a home favorite.
The qualifying factor suggesting that bet is Fulham’s defensive record. In their previous two league games, they’ve kept both opponents to one or fewer goals.
Since 2012, favorites that achieved said feat between -134 and +105 are 49-24, assuming two factors:
- The underdog’s winning percentage falls between 21% and 30%
- The favorite’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting falls between +0 and +3
When those teams play at home: 27-12 SU.
But I can’t shake the feeling this is a trap against an Everton side that has improved immensely under Moyes.
Since the managerial change, Everton dropped all three points only three times. Those losses came against Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City.
Fulham rates out as an inferior side to all of those teams. Additionally, they only edged Everton 1.3-1.2 on post-shot expected goals in the reverse fixture, per fbref.com.
If there’s a sign of encouragement for Fulham, it’s that they bossed Nottingham Forest at home recently, a side with similar metrics to Everton.
That match finished 2-1 to Fulham with a +1.7 expected goal differential for Silva’s side. Post-shot xG flattered Fulham even more with a 3.4-1.1 result, per fbref.com.
Including that win, Fulham has earned all three points in two of their last three as home favorites. However, they’re still only 5-8 SU as home favorites this season.
That said, it would be Fulham or nothing on Saturday.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | Southampton | May. 18 | 7 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Nottingham Forest | May. 18 | 9:15 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Leicester City | Ipswich Town | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Brentford | Fulham | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Arsenal | Newcastle United | May. 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | May. 19 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 13-17-6 | 44.4% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-3 | 65.3% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 20-15-1 | 56.9% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 18-12-6 | 58.3% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-3 | 43.1% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-18-2 | 47.2% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-14-1 | 59.7% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-14-0 | 61.1% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 13-19-4 | 41.7% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-16-2 | 52.8% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-3 | 83 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-14-4 | 68 | 33 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-10 | 66 | 23 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-8-10 | 62 | 12 |
| Brentford | 16-7-13 | 55 | 10 |
| Brighton | 14-14-8 | 55 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Fulham | 14-9-13 | 51 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 9-15-12 | 42 | -5 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-16 | 40 | -17 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-22 | 22 | -42 |
| Leicester City | 5-7-24 | 22 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-6-28 | 12 | -57 |
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