- Fulham is predicted to be a +0.5-goal home underdog against Liverpool.
- Fulham has won each of its last four EPL matches following a league loss.
- My Fulham vs. Liverpool prediction is the Liverpool moneyline.
Following a league loss to Arsenal in the midweek, Fulham return home for a weekend match against Liverpool.
Marco Silva’s side fell 2-1 at the Emirates on Tuesday, their second loss in three league games. The good news? Fulham has two wins in their previous three at home.
Liverpool face a midweek match against neighbors Everton with a chance to regain a 12-point title advantage. Earlier this season, Liverpool dropped points in a 2-2 draw with Fulham.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Fulham vs. Liverpool prediction.
Fulham vs Liverpool: Premier League Odds
Liverpool vs Fulham Prediction
Based on Liverpool’s outstanding metrics away from home and a historically profitable angle, my Fulham vs. Liverpool prediction is the Liverpool Moneyline (-115).
The price strikes me as a bit disrespectful to Liverpool. Earlier this season, second-place Arsenal closed at -165 against Fulham on December 8.
To me, this price indicates this match carries no meaning to Liverpool. That simply can’t be the case with so many matches left to be played.
Plus, Liverpool’s road record puts Arsenal’s to shame. As of April 2, Liverpool posted a 10-5-0 (W-D-L) record on the road with a +1.38 expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
Comparatively, Arsenal recorded a 7-6-2 (W-D-L) record away from home with a +0.34 xGDiff per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
It’s also a strong revenge spot for the Reds after dropping points against Fulham earlier this year.
However, that 2-2 draw resulted from a Liverpool red card on 17 minutes. Despite that setback, Liverpool still managed to post a 2.13-1.22 xG edge.
Although post-shot xG rated the match a 1.8-1.44 win for Fulham, Liverpool finds itself in a historically profitable spot on Sunday.
Since 2012, previous hosts between -130 and +246 against a previous underdog are 116-105, assuming two factors:
- The underdog’s previous game margin is -2 or -1
- The team’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting is +0 or +1
When that system hits in fixture 29 onward, those teams improve to 41-31 for a 49.7% return on investment.
As a result, I like Liverpool to earn all three points against Fulham on Sunday in London.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | Apr. 22 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | Apr. 23 | 3 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-15-6 | 45.5% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-4 | 57.6% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 11-22-0 | 33.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-12-3 | 67 | 34 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Manchester City | 17-7-9 | 58 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-8 | 57 | 6 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-11-11 | 44 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
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