- Fulham is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Tottenham.
- Each of Fulham's last five EPL Sunday day matches have resulted in a draw.
- My Fulham vs. Tottenham prediction is for Fulham to earn all three points.
It’s a London Derby on Sunday at Craven Cottage with Fulham hosting Tottenham Hotspur.
Fulham conceded a late penalty to fall 2-1 at Brighton on Matchday 28. It’s only the fifth time this season Fulham failed to cover the spread away from home.
Tottenham fell behind 2-0 at home against Bournemouth but stormed back with two late goals to rescue a point. Still, Tottenham sit 13th in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Fulham vs. Tottenham prediction.
Fulham vs. Tottenham: Premier League Odds
- Fulham Moneyline: +100
- Tottenham Moneyline: +230
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Game Spread: Fulham -0.5 (-110), Tottenham +0.5 (-130)
- Game Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-200/+140)
Fulham vs. Tottenham Prediction
Based on Fulham’s bad luck against Brighton and Tottenham’s short rest spot, my Fulham vs. Tottenham prediction is the Fulham Moneyline (+100).
Fulham arrive at Sunday’s clash a major positive regression candidate at home.
Marco Silva’s side sits on a -1 goal differential at Craven Cottage compared to a +2.1 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
This could be the spot to back that regression is coming. They’ll get Tottenham on short rest off a thoroughly undeserved result at home.
Spurs drew 2-2 against Bournemouth, but Ange Postecoglou’s side lost the match 2.54-1.1 on post-shot xG and 2.54-0.32 if you remove Tottenham’s penalty kick.
A similar fate befell Fulham, which lost the match on a last-gasp Brighton penalty.
Plus, Fulham have dominated Tottenham of late.
They edged Tottenham 1.66-1.05 on post-shot xG in the reverse fixture and captured a 2.6-0.86 edge on post-shot xG in the last meeting at Craven Cottage.
Tottenham also faces a Thursday Europa League match at home that’s must win. Accordingly, there could be a rotated lineup on Sunday at Craven Cottage.
History also likes this spot to back Fulham.
Since 2012, favorites between -119 and +113 against a previous underdog are 54-28 SU, assuming two factors:
- The opposing team’s win percentage falls between 25% and 43%
- The favorite’s previous game margin is -1 or +1
Those favorites are 32-12 SU coming off a one-goal defeat and 31-13 SU as home favorites, irrespective of the result.
But when they’re a home favorite off a one-goal loss, those favorites improve to 19-7 SU.
As a result, I like Fulham to earn all three points on Sunday in London.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Nov. 8 | 7:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Everton | Fulham | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| West Ham United | Burnley | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Nov. 8 | 12:30 p.m. | Stadium of Light |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Nov. 8 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Brentford | Newcastle United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Nov. 9 | 11:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 2-1-2 | 60.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Bournemouth | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Brentford | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Burnley | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Chelsea | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| Everton | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-2-2 | 40.0% |
| Fulham | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Leeds United | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Liverpool | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 80.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Manchester City | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Manchester United | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle United | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Sunderland | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5-0-0 | 100.0% |
| West Ham United | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Arsenal | 8-1-1 | 25 | 15 |
| Manchester City | 6-1-3 | 19 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 5-3-2 | 18 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 6-0-4 | 18 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 5-3-2 | 18 | 4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5-2-3 | 17 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 5-2-3 | 17 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 5-2-3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 4-4-2 | 16 | 5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-3-3 | 15 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4-3-3 | 15 | -1 |
| Brentford | 4-1-5 | 13 | -1 |
| Newcastle United | 3-3-4 | 12 | -1 |
| Everton | 3-3-4 | 12 | -3 |
| Fulham | 3-2-5 | 11 | -2 |
| Leeds United | 3-2-5 | 11 | -8 |
| Burnley | 3-1-6 | 10 | -7 |
| West Ham United | 2-1-7 | 7 | -11 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-3-6 | 6 | -12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-2-8 | 2 | -15 |
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