Hull City vs Man United Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Below, bettors can find Premier League odds and a Hull City vs Man United prediction.

Hull City vs Man United: Premier League Odds

Man United vs Hull City Prediction

Based on Hull City’s poor defensive record in the Championship and Man United’s record under Michael Carrick, my Hull City vs Man United prediction is Man United Over 2.5 Goals (+150).

Hull should see massive regression this year based on performances in the second tier last year. The club posted a +4 goal differential against a -20.4 expected goal differential.

Of 24 clubs, the team ranked 23rd in expected goals against (80.1). However, the defense ran extremely lucky by conceding only 66 goals in actuality.

Now the team takes a step up in class, starting with Manchester United. Albeit in a small sample size, the attack flourished under Michael Carrick.

Over 17 matches, the attack averaged 1.55 post-shot xG per 90 minutes. Although they ran lucky – 33 goals off 26.4 post-shot xG – 39% of the luck came as dogs to Arsenal.

In the 16 other fixtures under Carrick, the attack scored 30 goals off 25.94 post-shot xG. Starting with the Fulham match, Manchester United cleared 2.5 goals five times, a 33.3% hit rate.

That comes before adjusting for strength of schedule. This match, despite coming away at Old Trafford, qualifies as the easiest opponent of the Carrick era.

United performed admirably in attack against superior defenses.

The attack managed three goals against Liverpool off 2.6 xG/2.2 post-shot xG. Against Aston Villa: three goals off 1.7 xG/2.2 post-shot xG.

Finally, United notched three tallies against Nottingham Forest on Matchday 37. Forest, the closest comparison to Hull City, surrendered 4.3 xG and 3.2 post-shot xG.

With United priced at -200 to clear 1.5 goals, it’s my belief they clear 2.5 goals at a higher rate than their 40% chance implies.