Leeds vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

After a disappointing showing against Manchester United, Arsenal travels to face Leeds. 

Mikel Arteta’s side fell 3-2 against United on Sunday. The loss leaves Arsenal four points clear at the top over Manchester City and Aston Villa. 

Leeds took a 1-0 lead at Everton on Monday. However, the visitors conceded late in the second half to take a point home as short road underdogs. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Leeds vs Arsenal prediction. 

Leeds vs Arsenal: Premier League Odds

Arsenal vs Leeds: Prediction

Based on Arsenal’s previous performance against Leeds and rolling attacking metrics, my Leeds vs Arsenal prediction is Arsenal Over 1.5 Goals (-150). 

Arsenal scored five at home against Leeds. Although it came against only 2.74 expected goals, Arteta’s side still managed to clear this line. 

Irrespective of opponent, Arsenal averages 1.99 expected goals per 90 minutes. Recently, they’ve started to boost their underlying metrics. 

Over the last 10 matches, Arsenal generated 2.12 expected goals per 90. Even away from home, Arsenal produced strong attacking performances. 

Three of Arsenal’s last four road trips saw the team create at least 1.8 expected goals. That run includes trips to comparable defenses: Forest, Villa and Everton. 

An initial glance suggests Leeds has played quality defense at home. Through 11 matches, Daniel Farke’s team has surrendered 11.3 xG. 

However, results as a home underdog tell a different story. Liverpool reached 2.05 xG while Manchester United reached 1.95 xG at Elland Road. 

Even an inconsistent Palace attack reached 1.53 at Elland Road. 

Soon, Leeds will start facing good attacks at home, which dominated Leeds as a road dog. That, in my opinion, renders Saturday’s match a strong sell-high spot on the hosts defensively.