Leeds vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Below, bettors can find Premier League odds and a Leeds vs Crystal Palace prediction.

Leeds vs Crystal Palace: Premier League Odds

Crystal Palace vs Leeds Prediction

Given the short turnaround and Crystal Palace’s poor defensive metrics, my Leeds vs Crystal Palace prediction is the Leeds Moneyline (-130).

How Palace takes points from this match is a huge mystery for me.

Leeds last played on Monday, throttling Newcastle United 4-1. They’ll stay home all week before playing a second straight home match against Palace.

Meanwhile, Pierre Sage’s side will face a more difficult test. Sunday’s fixture will mark the third in eight days for the new manager after a Europa League home match on Thursday.

Palace has already had their struggles away from home this year, too. On Matchday 1, Palace fell 2-0 to Everton while surrendering 1.9 post-shot xG, per FotMob.

The margin looked worse than expected for Palace, who posted a -1 psxGDiff.

Then Palace repeatedly came from behind against Fulham with fluky goals to win 3-2 at Craven Cottage. In that fixture, Palace lost the xG battle 3.1-2.0 despite winning on psxG by 0.5.

I project Leeds as Palace’s toughest test of the season. At home, Leeds has consistently avoided defeat while posting strong metrics.

While they arrive at this fixture as a negative regression candidate – +3 goal differential vs. +1.8 post-shot xGDiff – they’ve consistently looked good in defense.

Brentford and Newcastle – both superior attacks to Palace – finished on 1.0 and 1.1 post-shot xG, respectively.

Lastly, Leeds dominated Palace in the reverse fixture at Elland Road. Daniel Farke’s side won 4-1 with a +1.1 expected goal differential and a +2.27 post-shot differential.

Given Palace only scored off a penalty kick down 4-0, I predict the hosts will take all three points in a favorable spot.