Leeds vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Below, bettors can find Premier League odds and a Leeds vs Newcastle prediction.

Leeds vs Newcastle: Premier League Odds

Newcastle vs Leeds Prediction

Based on Newcastle’s misleading result against Bournemouth and Leeds United’s stout defensive record, my Leeds vs Newcastle prediction is Leeds Draw, No Bet (-140). 

Leeds looked impressive through its opening three matches. Last year’s newcomers have taken points in all three matches while besting its opponents on underlying metrics.

Manager Daniel Farke’s side possesses a +1 goal differential against a +1.6 post-shot expected goal differential, per FotMob. They’ve edged opponents in all three matches.

But the crux of this prediction is fading an overrated Newcastle side. While Monday’s visitors also have yet to suffer a defeat, the metrics are less than impressive.

Newcastle sits on a +2 differential through three matches. However, it comes against a -2.4 expected goal differential and a -1.9 post-shot xGDiff.

Even if you remove the match against Liverpool, Newcastle remains a negative regression candidate.

As a dog at Tottenham, Newcastle won 2-0. However, Tottenham bested Newcastle 1.1-0.7 on xG and 0.9-0.7 on post-shot xG.

On Matchday 3, Newcastle came from 2-0 down to draw Bournemouth 2-2 at home. Metrics once again favored the opponent: Bournemouth posted a +0.7 xGDiff and +0.3 psxGDiff.

Regression could arrive at one of the toughest venues to take all three points. Since joining the EPL last year, Leeds has dropped all three points at home five times in 20 matches.

Those losses: Tottenham, Aston Villa, Manchester City, Sunderland and Arsenal. Against Newcastle last year at Elland Road, Leeds drew despite winning the expected goals battle.

Accordingly, I predict Monday’s hosts do no worse than a draw at Elland Road.