- Liverpool is predicted to be a -1.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
- Liverpool have won four of the last five against Brentford.
- I predict Brentford are live to pull the upset at Anfield on Sunday.
Seeking their fourth straight win over Brentford, Liverpool welcome the Bees to Anfield on Sunday.
Both teams enter Sunday’s match off wins. Liverpool used a strong second half to beat Ipswich Town 2-0, while Brentford captured a 2-1 home win over Crystal Palace.
Last year, Liverpool finished 2-0 SU against Brentford with a 7-1 head-to-head margin.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Sunday’s fixture.
Liverpool vs. Brentford Odds, Premier League
- Liverpool Moneyline: -400
- Brentford Moneyline: +900
- Draw Moneyline: +575
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-115)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-160), No (+110)
Liverpool vs. Brentford Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for Sunday’s match at Anfield is the Brentford Moneyline (+950).
I won’t sugarcoat it: Brentford’s underlying metrics vs. Liverpool last season were awful.
Across both meetings, the Bees posted a -0.58 xGDiff per 90 minutes and a -1.92 post-shot xGDiff per 90 minutes.
But Brentford matches the historical profile of a team that can win outright.
Since the 2012-13 season, dogs priced between +210 and +961 in August or November-January are 27% SU for 37.3% return on investment, assuming three factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between -9 and -1
- The team’s previous game margin is between -1 and +2
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -3 and +3
Plus, there’s a hint from Liverpool’s opening match about how Brentford can win this match.
Liverpool played awful in the first half at Ipswich. Manager Arne Slot’s side took only three shots and created 0.1 expected goals.
That might fly against a newly promoted team, but I’m not sure it will work against Brentford.
If Brentford comes out strong and takes an early lead, it puts them in prime position to play to their strengths.
For all of their issues last year, Brentford played very well with a lead.
They held a lead for limited minutes last season — 679 minutes, or 7.5 90’s — but their underlying metrics are encouraging.
In those minutes, Brentford posted a +0.67 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
The bet is essentially dead if Liverpool takes the lead — they’ve dropped all three points only one time over the last three years with a lead.
However, given their slow start at Ipswich, I’m willing to take a flier on Brentford at an inflated number.
Liverpool Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 17 at Ipswich Town: 2-0, W
- Aug. 11 vs. Las Palmas: 0-0, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 11 vs. Sevilla: 4-1, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-0, W (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Arsenal: 2-1, W (Friendly)
Brentford Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 18 vs. Crystal Palace: 2-1, W
- Aug. 9 vs. Wolfsburg: 4-4, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Watford: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- July 25 at Benfica: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- July 20 at Wimbledon: 5-2, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Liverpool odds and Brentford odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Bournemouth | Nottingham Forest | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Brighton | Everton | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Liverpool | Ipswich Town | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Anfield |
| Southampton | Newcastle United | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Wolves | Arsenal | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Molineux |
| Manchester City | Chelsea | Jan. 25 | 12:30 p.m | Etihad Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brentford | Jan. 26 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Tottenham | Leicester City | Jan. 26 | 9 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Aston Villa | West Ham United | Jan. 26 | 11:30 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Manchester United | Jan. 26 | 2 p.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 15-5-1 | 50 | 30 |
| Arsenal | 12-8-2 | 44 | 22 |
| Nottingham Forest | 13-5-4 | 44 | 11 |
| Chelsea | 11-7-4 | 40 | 17 |
| Manchester City | 11-5-6 | 38 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 11-5-6 | 38 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 10-7-5 | 37 | 10 |
| Aston Villa | 10-6-6 | 36 | -1 |
| Brighton | 8-10-4 | 34 | 5 |
| Fulham | 8-9-5 | 33 | 4 |
| Brentford | 8-4-10 | 28 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 6-9-7 | 27 | -3 |
| Manchester United | 7-5-10 | 26 | -5 |
| West Ham United | 7-5-10 | 26 | -16 |
| Tottenham | 7-3-12 | 24 | 10 |
| Everton | 4-8-9 | 20 | -10 |
| Wolves | 4-4-14 | 16 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-7-12 | 16 | -23 |
| Leicester City | 3-5-14 | 14 | -25 |
| Southampton | 1-3-18 | 6 | -35 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 8-10-4 | 45.5% | 2-6-3 | 31.8% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Aston Villa | 8-13-1 | 38.6% | 3-7-1 | 31.8% | 5-6-0 | 45.5% |
| Bournemouth | 15-7-0 | 68.2% | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Brentford | 13-7-2 | 63.6% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% | 5-3-2 | 60.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-9-1 | 56.8% | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 8-3-1 | 70.8% |
| Chelsea | 9-11-2 | 45.5% | 4-6-1 | 40.9% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 12-7-3 | 61.4% | 4-4-3 | 50.0% | 8-3-0 | 72.7% |
| Everton | 10-9-2 | 52.4% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 5-4-1 | 55.0% |
| Fulham | 13-7-2 | 63.6% | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 7-2-2 | 72.7% |
| Ipswich Town | 10-11-1 | 47.7% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 6-3-1 | 65.0% |
| Leicester City | 10-11-1 | 47.7% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 5-4-1 | 55.0% |
| Liverpool | 11-9-1 | 54.8% | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 7-4-0 | 63.6% |
| Manchester City | 6-16-0 | 27.3% | 2-8-0 | 20.0% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 9-11-2 | 45.5% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 4-5-1 | 45.0% |
| Newcastle United | 12-9-1 | 56.8% | 7-4-0 | 63.6% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 15-7-0 | 68.2% | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 9-2-0 | 81.8% |
| Southampton | 8-11-3 | 43.2% | 2-7-1 | 25.0% | 6-4-2 | 58.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 8-14-0 | 36.4% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% |
| West Ham United | 10-11-1 | 47.7% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 6-4-0 | 60.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9-12-1 | 43.2% | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
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