- Liverpool is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home favorite against Newcastle.
- Liverpool has won eight of its last nine EPL matches against Newcastle.
- My Liverpool vs Newcastle prediction is the Newcastle United Spread (+0.5).
Saturday’s marquee EPL fixture pits Liverpool against Newcastle at Anfield.Â
Both teams suffered bad losses on Matchday 23. Liverpool fell 3-2 as road favorites against Bournemouth, extending Liverpool’s winless run to five matches.Â
Newcastle lost 2-0 at home against Aston Villa. The result ended a four-match unbeaten run for Eddie Howe’s Newcastle, which sits ninth in the league table.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Liverpool vs Newcastle prediction.Â
Liverpool vs Newcastle: Premier League Odds
Newcastle vs Liverpool: Prediction
Based on Liverpool’s defense absentees and Newcastle’s misleading result against Aston Villa, my Liverpool vs Newcastle prediction is the Newcastle Spread (+0.5, -102).Â
Predicting the outcome of Saturday’s match is a tricky one. Effectively, the match comes down to who scores the first goal.Â
Liverpool is 10-3-0 (W-D-L) from 13 leading positions this year. Dating back to last year, Arne Slot’s side is 35-8-2 in such spots.Â
This season, Newcastle has fallen behind nine times and lost eight of those matches.Â
However, I question the true quality of Liverpool’s defense for two reasons. First, the unit has benefitted from a lot of opponent red cards this season (5).Â
Additionally, Slot has to contend with several absentees in defense. Ibrahima Konate, Conor Bradley and Joe Gomez are all set to miss Saturday’s game.Â
Even more concerning for Liverpool? Saturday’s match brings a short rest spot after a home Champions League match against Qarabag on Wednesday.Â
All of that said, Newcastle simultaneously faces a Wednesday trip to PSG before heading to Anfield. They’re also contending with a key injury to midfielder Bruno Guimaraes.Â
At home, Newcastle surrendered 1.09 post-shot xG inside 20 minutes to Aston Villa. However, the attack also missed a 0.54 xG/0.32 post-shot xG chance on four minutes.Â
If Newcastle takes that chance, the match likely plays out a lot differently. Plus, a 3-2 home loss to Liverpool saw Newcastle play down a man for the second half.Â
Given those factors, it’s the visitors or nothing for me at Anfield.Â
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