- Manchester City is predicted to be a -2.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
- City earned six points from six against Brentford last season.
- I predict Brentford are worth a shot on the three-way moneyline.
On Saturday at the Etihad, Manchester City look to make it 12 points from 12 to start the season against Brentford.
The Cityzens cruised 3-1 in their last match against West Ham thanks to an Erling Haaland hat trick. To start the year, they’ve won all three matches by multiple goals.
Meanwhile, Brentford captured their second win in as many tries at home before the break. As home favorites to Southampton, the Bees cruised 3-1.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Manchester City vs. Brentford Odds, Premier League
- Manchester City Moneyline: -500
- Brentford Moneyline: +1200
- Draw Moneyline: +650
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-115)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-120), No (-115)
Manchester City vs. Brentford Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for this match is Brentford Moneyline (+1200). However, Brentford’s lineup will determine if this bet gets made.
I don’t place much stock into last season’s meetings thanks to key personnel absences for the Bees.
Arguably their two most important players — wingback Rico Henry and striker Bryan Mbeumo — missed both meetings.
Henry needs to play in this game to make this bet.
When those two are in the lineup, Brentford earn results at a significantly higher rate.
With Henry, Brentford’s win percentage jumps from 31.7% to 35.5%. They also earn points at a 67.1% clip compared to a 46.3% clip without him.
Now Mbeumo. When he plays, Brentford has a 37.5% win percentage and earn points at a 65.4% clip.
Without him? They drop to 3-1-12 (W-D-L).
Two years ago, this team went to City and dominated the match.
Brentford won 2-1 as +1900 underdogs, winning the post-shot expected goals battle 2.45 to 1.4 and the big chances battle 6-1!
Brentford also fits the profile of a dog that wins outright in this spot.
Since 2012, road dogs with between three and 15 days between games are 24% SU, assuming three factors:
- The underdog’s previous game margin is between +0 and +2
- The favorite won the last meeting by one or two goals
- The favorite’s previous game margin is between +1 and +5
Sample teams between +1000 and +2000, and they’re still 7-29 SU (19.4%). But the implied probability of Brentford’s moneyline is only 7.7%.
Based on those outputs, Brentford are absolutely worth a flier to earn all three points.
Manchester City Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 31 at West Ham United: 3-1, W
- Aug. 24 vs. Ipswich Town: 4-1, W
- Aug. 18 at Chelsea: 2-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Manchester United: 1-1, D (City Win on PK’s)
- Aug. 3 vs. Chelsea: 4-2, W (Friendly)
Brentford Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 31 vs. Southampton: 3-1, W
- Aug. 28 at Colchester: 1-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Aug. 25 at Liverpool: 0-2, L
- Aug. 18 vs. Crystal Palace: 2-1, W
- Aug. 9 vs. Wolfsburg: 4-4, D (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Manchester City odds and Brentford odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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