Man City vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

A pair of EPL title threats face off on Saturday with Manchester City hosting Liverpool. 

For City, Saturday’s match offers a chance to break a troubling run against Liverpool. Pep Guardiola’s side has dropped points in four straight against the Reds. 

City will look to end that streak against a resurgent Liverpool side. Arne Slot’s side ended a four-match losing run in the league with a 2-0 home win over Aston Villa on Saturday. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs Liverpool prediction. 

Man City vs Liverpool: Premier League Odds

Liverpool vs Man City: Prediction

Based on Liverpool’s defensive weakness and poor road form this season, my Man City vs Liverpool prediction is the Manchester City Moneyline (-115). 

For Liverpool to take points in this match, the defense has to show up. Against a powerful Manchester City attack, I’m not sure the performance will look good. 

Only four teams have surrendered more expected goals away from home than Liverpool. That makes this match a prime sell-high spot for the Reds, who kept a clean sheet against Villa. 

But the difference between Villa and City is wide. Exclusive of both teams’ Matchday 10 fixtures, here’s how the teams stack up in expected goals and post-shot xG, respectively:

• Man City: 4th, 9th
• Aston Villa: 19th, 20th

The closest comparison to City attack-wise is Crystal Palace. Liverpool, albeit as a road favorite, went to Selhurst Park on September 27. 

Slot’s team fell 2-1 with a -0.8 expected goal differential and post-shot xGDiff, per fbref.com. 

Man City also own one of the best home-field advantages this season. Only Arsenal holds a superior home xGDiff per 90 than City (+1.18). 

Meanwhile, Liverpool’s road xGDiff per 90 comes in at +0.34. However, that includes a trip to Newcastle where Liverpool played up a man for over an hour. 

With minimal evidence to show another strong performance by Liverpool’s defense, I predict City will take all three points at home.