- Manchester United is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Liverpool.
- Liverpool has failed to win three straight at Old Trafford.
- I predict Liverpool earns all three points against United on Sunday.
It’s the marquee Premier League fixture for Matchday 3: Manchester United vs. Liverpool at Old Trafford.
These teams enter Sunday’s match off different results. United fell 2-1 to Brighton on Saturday, while Liverpool captured a 2-0 home win against Brentford.
Old Trafford hasn’t been kind to Liverpool recently. They’ve failed to win three straight in all competitions after capturing two straight wins in Manchester.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
Manchester United vs. Liverpool Odds, Premier League
- Manchester United Moneyline: +270
- Liverpool Moneyline: -120
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-135)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-250), No (+170)
Manchester United vs. Liverpool Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for Sunday’s fixture is the Liverpool Moneyline (-120).
The last meeting ended 2-2, but it was clear as day Liverpool played better.
Expected goals finished 3.7 to 0.7 in the visitor’s favor. Remove Mo Salah’s penalty, and Liverpool still posted a +2.2 non-penalty xGDiff, per fotmob.com.
That marked the second straight draw in this series, with the first meeting last season finishing 0-0. However, Liverpool won the xG battle 2.4-0.75 and the psxG battle 1.44-0.1.
Timing should also be considered for those matches, with Liverpool playing both on short rest.
Arne Slot’s side also matches two historically profitable betting systems.
Since 2012, favorites priced between -250 and -103 in games 2-10 are 81% SU, assuming three factors:
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -8 and -1
- The previous head-to-head result is between +0 and +4
- The previous game the opponent was the underdog
Even at -150 or shorter, teams are still 33-13 SU.
One more: favorites shorter than -230 in games 1-20 that closed a favorite in their last game are 68.1% SU, assuming two factors:
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -4 and -1
- The previous head-to-head result was +0 or +1
When those teams are coming off a win, they’re 69.1% SU. Off a win against a team that was an underdog: 51-21 SU.
For those reasons, expect Liverpool to end their winless run at Old Trafford and to capture all three points.
Manchester United Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 24 at Brighton: 1-2, L
- Aug. 16 vs. Fulham: 1-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D (City win on PK’s)
- Aug. 3 vs. Liverpool: 0-3, L (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Real Betis: 3-2, W (Friendly)
Liverpool Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 25 vs. Brentford: 2-0, W
- Aug. 17 at Ipswich Town: 2-0, W
- Aug. 11 vs. Las Palmas: 0-0, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 11 vs. Sevilla: 4-1, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-0, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Manchester United odds and Liverpool odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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