Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Below, bettors can find Premier League odds and a Newcastle vs Bournemouth prediction.

Newcastle vs Bournemouth: Premier League Odds

Bournemouth vs Newcastle Prediction

Based on Newcastle’s misleading defensive record at Tottenham and Bournemouth’s strong attack, my Newcastle vs Bournemouth prediction is Bournemouth Over 1.5 Goals (+120).

At minimum, the price paints an inaccurate picture of the Newcastle defense.

The defense has allowed only one goal from open play. However, one could argue this match presents the stiffest challenge.

Tottenham failed to score on Matchday 2, but Newcastle survived many big chances. Cumulatively, Tottenham created 1.1 expected goals and 0.9 post-shot xG.

On Matchday 1, Newcastle allowed 2.7 xG and post-shot xG to Liverpool. The sample includes a penalty kick, but Liverpool still cleared two xG without the spot kick.

Based on last year’s metrics, Bournemouth rates out closer to Liverpool’s attack. Only a spot separated the attacks, with both hovering around 67 expected goals for the season.

Already this season, bettors have seen the Bournemouth attack shine. The unit ran unlucky at Manchester City, scoring once off two post-shot xG.

Against Everton, Marco Rose’s side scored once off 1.8 post-shot xG and 2.2 expected goals.

Now bettors get the attack in a potential buy-low spot. More encouraging is that Bournemouth posted strong attacking numbers in the last meeting against Newcastle.

At St. James’ Park, the attack scored twice off 2.99 expected goals and 2.01 post-shot xG.

It followed an FA Cup tie in which Bournemouth scored twice, producing 2.12 post-shot xG at the end of 90 minutes.

No meaningful personnel changes occurred since those meetings. Accordingly, I predict Bournemouth experiences some positive regression on Saturday morning.