- Newcastle is predicted to be a -1.5-goal favorite against Southampton.
- Newcastle has won five straight head-to-head meetings against Southampton.
- My prediction for Saturday’s EPL fixture is a Same Game Parlay.
Newcastle, which slipped three spots last year thanks to loads of injuries, begin its 2024 EPL campaign at home against Southampton.
The Magpies qualified for the Champions League two years prior, but saw a drop-off thanks to underachieving away from home.
Southampton, meanwhile, immediately earned promotion from the Championship last year. In 2022-23, the Saints were relegated after accumulating only 25 points.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Newcastle vs. Southampton Odds, Premier League
- Newcastle Moneyline: -275
- Southampton Moneyline: +675
- Draw Moneyline: +450
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-145)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-160), No (+110)
Newcastle vs. Southampton Prediction: Same Game Parlay
My prediction for Saturday’s fixture is a Same Game Parlay: Newcastle Moneyline and Both Teams to Score (+145).
For all of Newcastle’s problems last year, the Magpies remained very good at home. In fact, Newcastle improved from 11 home wins in 2022 to 12 in 2023.
Even though Newcastle’s underlying metrics slipped — the Magpies posted a +1.46 home xGDiff per 90 in 2022 compared to +1.12 last year — they made a habit of bossing bad teams.
Against teams 11th or worse in expected goal differential, Newcastle finished 7-2-1 (W-D-L) with a +1.32 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
Newcastle also bossed Southampton in the most recent meeting at St. James’ Park.
The hosts won the match 3-1, but expected goals finished 4.38 to 0.83. In terms of post-shot expected goals, it was still 2.24 to 1 for Newcastle.
All that said, this remains a Newcastle defense vulnerable to concessions.
Last year, Newcastle played 23 Premier League matches without defender Sven Botman. The Magpies kept a clean sheet only seven times in that sample.
In the final 10 matches without Botman, Newcastle conceded at least one goal in all but two matches.
Southampton also made quality additions in attack.
Ben Brereton Diaz, who spent last season on loan with Sheffield United, arrives to partner Adam Armstrong in attack.
Diaz started 14 matches with Sheffield last year and they scored a goal 10 times.
Given Southampton led the Championship in npxG per 90 last year in the Championship, I’ll back them to bag a goal at St. James’ Park.
However, given Southampton has lost five straight vs. Newcastle, I have little faith the Saints pull an upset.
Newcastle Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 10 vs. Brest: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 9 vs. Girona: 4-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Yokohama Marinos: 0-2, L (Friendly)
- July 31 at Urawa Red Diamonds: 4-1, W (Friendly)
- July 27 at Hull: 2-0, W
Southampton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 10 vs. Getafe: 0-0, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 7 vs. Lazio: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Millwall: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- July 31 at Oxford United: 0-2, L (Friendly)
- July 27 vs. Montpellier: 3-1, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Newcastle United odds and Southampton odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | Apr. 22 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | Apr. 23 | 3 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-12-3 | 67 | 34 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Manchester City | 17-7-9 | 58 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-8 | 57 | 6 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-11-11 | 44 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-15-6 | 45.5% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-4 | 57.6% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 11-22-0 | 33.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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