Premier League Predictions: Futures Bets for 2025

Just over a month separates soccer bettors from the start of the 2025-26 EPL season. 

After winning the title last year, Liverpool (+2800) is favored to win again. The Reds are tailed closely on the odds board by Arsenal (-140) and Manchester City (+165). 

Let’s dive into my Premier League predictions for the upcoming season based on Premier League odds at BetMGM. 

EPL Predictions: Futures Bets for 2025-26 Season

Brentford (+333) to be Relegated in 2025

Based on Brentford’s expected personnel departures on offense and Thomas Frank’s absence, I predict Brentford (+333) gets relegated in 2025. 

Frank departed this offseason to take the Tottenham job. It leaves a gaping hole for a team that finished in the top-half twice in the last three years. 

Captain Christian Norgaard also left for Arsenal in the transfer window. It’s also likely Bryan Mbeumo leaves by window close with a new possibility that Yoanne Wissa leaves too. 

Just losing Mbeumo would be a big problem. Last year, he accounted for 16.4% of Brentford’s non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists total, per fbref.com. 

A Wissa departure in tandem could prove disastrous. Wissa generated 21.1 npxG plus xA last season, which counts for 21.8% of Brentford’s total. 

Historically, teams that get relegated do so because of a weak offense. If both players depart and Brentford slows down, regression could arrive for the Bees. 

Last season, Brentford finished with a +9 goal differential. That came against a +3.6 expected goal differential. 

Add in Brentford played from behind for only 698 minutes last season – 19.1% of the year – and the departures could lead to a dropoff. 

Pair that with my confidence in newcomers Leeds, and I like taking a small position on Brentford to drop. 

Crystal Palace Top-Half Finish (+175)

Even if Eberechi Eze departs Palace this summer, I like the price on a team that ran unlucky last season. 

Oliver Glasner’s side finished with a +0 goal differential against a +11.3 expected goal differential, per fbref.com. Only six sides produced a superior differential. 

Even from a post-shot expected goal differential standpoint, Palace ran unlucky. The Eagles posted a +6.3 post-shot xGDiff. 

Most of that misfortune came via the offense. Palace scored 8.5 goals under expectation (49 non-own goals against 57.5 post-shot xG). 

That qualifies as the largest underperformance in the league. Last year, the leaders in that category from 2023 (Brighton, +12.8) accumulated 13 more points. 

Added motivation also exists for Palace based on its European competition. 

Due to UEFA’s multi-club ownership rule, Palace appear headed for the Europa Conference League instead of the Europa League. 

A word’s difference may not sound like a lot, but it’s a notable downgrade. As a result, Palace likely prioritizes the EPL. 

If that happens, positive regression could materialize in 2025. For a team that finished only three points from 10th last year, I’ll take the plus money. 

Fulham Top-Half Finish (+200)

What plagued Marco Silva’s side in 2024 was an ability to blow leads at a rapid rate. 

Fulham led 26 times last season, tied for the fifth-best mark in the league. 

But Fulham converted only 15 of those leads into victories. Fulham’s six losses from those positions ranked tied for the third most, ahead of only Tottenham and Southampton. 

If Fulham convert just one of those 11 non-victories into a win, it’s the difference between 11th and ninth. 

Previous examples of this pattern exist. 

In 2023, Bournemouth earned 24 leads in 38 matches, but it finished 13-6-5 (W-D-L). The next year, Bournemouth improved eight points. 

The same can be said of 2022 Tottenham (18-3-4 in such matches, 60 total points). In 2023, Spurs improved to 66 points and leapt from eighth to fifth. 

The Irons also ran slightly unlucky at both ends of the pitch. 

For the season, Silva’s side scored 53 non-own goals and allowed 52. That +1 differential came against a +6.4 post-shot xGDiff, excluding the own goals. 

If Fulham experiences positive regression at either end, it likely means a better chance than these odds imply.

Everton Top-Half Finish (+200)

From a points standpoint, few sides finished the 2024 campaign better than Everton. 

Beginning with Matchday 22, only five teams accumulated more points than the Toffees. That sample includes the entirety of David Moyes’ run, which began on Matchday 21. 

The underlying metrics from that run suggest clear improvement came with Moyes. Beginning with Matchday 21, Everton recorded a +0.12 expected goal differential per 90, per fbref.com. 

If they had produced that same benchmark for the entire season, Everton would hold the 9th-best mark in the league. 

What’s worth noting about the run: Everton ran up the metrics in games against bad teams. Take out fixtures against the relegated sides, and the differential drops back into the negatives. 

However, if you also eliminate games against the league’s best, it comes back up. To paint a picture, I examined games against teams with a xGDiff between +0.49 and -0.4 for the year. 

Everton played 10 games against such teams under Moyes. They earned points in all 10 with a +0.32 xGDiff per 90 minutes. Only once did they fall in the xG battle. 

While some key pieces departed this summer, Everton bolstered its squad too. Jack Grealish is set to join on loan from Man City and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall moves from Chelsea. 

Those two moves should help bolster an Everton attack that struggled last year. Only the three relegated teams finished worse from an xGF standpoint. 

Pair that with two straight seasons featuring a top-six xGA defense, and I like the price on the Toffees.

Burnley to Finish Last (+150)

Don’t expect a long stay in the English top flight for Burnley. 

Burnley finished second in the Championship last year. However, the Clarets ran wildly lucky to achieve that feat. 

Burnley finished 2024 with a +53 goal differential. It came against a +18.4 expected goal differential and a +22.9 post-shot differential. 

Virtually all of Burnley’s luck came defensively. Scott Parker’s side conceded 16 goals off 39.1 expected and 27.9 post-shot xG, per fbref.com. 

At +11.9 goals saved over expected, Burnley ranked second in the English second tier. 

Problematic for this year: Manchester City exercised its buyback clause on Burnley keeper James Trafford. 

That likely sees a big hit to the Burnley defense, especially for a team that rarely played from behind last year. 

If regression arrives, Burnley could contend for last place in the league. Pair that with Sunderland spending more in the summer window, and I like the price here. 

Leeds United Top Promoted Team (-125)

Leeds qualifies as one of the best Championship sides to enter the Premier League. 

Last year, Daniel Farke’s side posted a +1.29 expected goal differential per 90 minutes in the second tier. Since 2018, that qualifies as the best xGDiff of any Championship winner. 

Only two sides previously leaped to the EPL with xGDiff per 90 at +1 or higher. Both stayed up the following season while recording top-half finishes. 

For as much as this is a play on Leeds, it’s a fade of Burnley and Sunderland. 

As noted earlier, I rate Burnley as a strong candidate to bring up the bottom of the table. 

Sunderland have spent heavily this summer, but they’re still miles behind Leeds. Last season, Sunderland posted a +0.2 xGDiff per 90 minutes. 

That renders Sunderland the worst side to earn promotion since 2019 Fulham. The next year, Fulham immediately returned to the second tier. 

Last year, Leeds bested Sunderland by 24 points. Although they finished level with Burnley, it came because of massive luck from the Clarets.

Tottenham Hotspur Top-6 Finish (+138)

[Writer’s Note: this analysis was written prior to James Maddison and Dominic Solanke sustaining injuries. Following those injuries, I hold less confidence]

Based on Tottenham’s managerial upgrade and personnel improvements, I predict Spurs secure a Top-6 Finish (+138). 

Ange Postecoglou is gone and Thomas Frank arrives. The switch in style should allow for a healthier Tottenham that finished 17th in the league last year. 

In terms of days lost, only Brighton lost more days to injury than Tottenham. 

After securing Champions League via a Europa League title, Spurs reinforced the squad this summer. 

Mohammed Kudus arrives from West Ham and Morgan Gibbs-White comes from Nottingham Forest. 

Last year, only eight teams created more post-shot xG than Tottenham. Of the teams 10th or better in that category, only Tottenham finished worse than 10th. 

The issue for Tottenham came in defense. However, Micky van de Ven started only 12 matches – down from 27 in 2023 – and Cristian Romero started 18 – down from 33 in 2023. 

Two years ago, Spurs finished fifth in the league. 

Even with the added fixtures, some positive injury luck should lead to better results. For that reason, I like the price here for Spurs to get back into the top-six.