The Premier League season closes out this Sunday with all eyes focused on relegation.
Arsenal claimed the league title following Manchester City’s draw at Bournemouth on Tuesday. Both teams now face meaningless fixtures this Sunday.
Only one significant detail remains to be determined: the final relegated team. Tottenham sits in 17th while West Ham sits two points behind in 18th.
To avoid relegation, West Ham needs to win against Leeds and have Tottenham lose to Everton.
Let’s dive into my prediction for Matchday 38 based on Premier League odds from BetMGM.
Best Premier League Match Predictions for Matchday 38
Manchester City vs Aston Villa: Total Over 3.5 Goals (-125)
The only real unknown here is whether Pep Guardiola elects to sit key personnel heading to the World Cup. Accordingly, bettors should wait for lineups to ensure a full-strength City squad.
Neither team enters this match with much motivation. Aston Villa secured a Champions League spot with a Europa League Final win on Wednesday.
For City, it’s a (potential) chance to send out manager Pep Guardiola in style.
This season, City dominated in attack at home. They’ve generated 2.4 expected goals per 90 at the Etihad and scored at least three times 10 times in 18 matches.
Villa have struggled to contain good attacks on the road, too. At Arsenal, Unai Emery’s side surrendered 4.4 expected goals.
Irrespective of the opponent, Villa allowed 1.7 expected goals per 90 away from home. That comes without facing a prolific City attack.
Those factors, along with the lack of stakes, lead me to predict a free-flowing match in Manchester.
Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth: Bournemouth Over 1.5 Goals (-125)
Very few matches this weekend feature one team with motivation playing a team without it. Forest vs. Bournemouth is one qualifier.
Forest is firmly on the beach after distancing itself from the relegation zone. Bournemouth enters the final day sitting sixth, three points outside a Champions League spot.
The Cherries face an uphill climb to fifth. They’d need a blowout win and a significant Liverpool loss to Brentford in order to overtake the Reds on the final day.
However, they still need a point in order to guarantee a Europa League spot vs. a Europa Conference League spot. The former offers a clearer path to the Champions League.
It should inform enough effort that Bournemouth continues its strong offensive record. This season, they’ve cleared 1.5 goals 20 times through 37 matches.
They’ve stayed under this benchmark in two straight. However, Andoni Iraola’s side cleared 1.5 goals in five straight games before those shortcomings.
Forest, meanwhile, is heading in the opposite direction defensively. Man United scored three against Forest on Matchday 37, with three straight opponents clearing 1.7 xG.
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