2022-23 Premier League Relegation Odds, Predictions

min read
Brentford's head coach Thomas Frank applauds at the end of the English Premier League soccer match between Brentford and Arsenal, at the Gtech Community stadium, London, Sunday, Sept.18, 2022. Arsenal won 3-0.
(AP Photo/David Cliff)
Gary Pearson @newagejourno Oct 14, 2022, 11:28 AM
  • Nottingham Forest is the heavy relegation favorite.
  • Leicester looks more like a relegation favorite with each passing week.
  • Bournemouth continues to surprise neutrals.

Nine matches into the Premier League season and a handful of teams are anchored to the bottom of the table, increasing their relegation probabilities. 

Premier League odds have Nottingham Forest (-303) and Bournemouth (-120) as the favorites to go back from whence they came come season’s end. 

A few weeks ago, Bournemouth were -225 favorites to make the drop. Bournemouth hasn’t lost since sending Scott Parker packing. 

Bournemouth sits comfortably in eighth place, but most expect the wheels to fall off once interim manager Gary O’Neil’s honeymoon period fizzles out. Until then, Bournemouth resolutely defies the odds. 

Each team’s tickets and handles tell an interesting tale, with Nottingham Forest taking over 72% of the handle. 

2022-23 Premier League Relegation Odds, Predictions

Leicester opened as +1600 long shots to make the drop but have endured the most significant movement. 

Aston Villa’s odds have also shortened considerably, underpinning the degree to which Steven Gerrard’s side has struggled in the early stages. 

TeamOpenCurrentWill They Be Relegated?Prediction
Nottingham Forest-125-303YesLast
Bournemouth-160-120YesSecond Last
Leicester+1600+200No16th Place
Southampton+300+220No17th Place
Wolves+500+250No11th Place
Fulham+130+350Yes15th Place
Leeds+240+350No14th Place
Everton+500+400No13th Place
Aston Villa+1400+600No12th Place
Brentford+250+600NoThird Last

These teams are predicted to finish the season in the bottom five, from 16th to 20th. 

5. Leicester Relegation Odds

Relegation Odds: +200

Prediction: 16th Place (Not Relegated)

The conviction that Leicester is too good to go down is waning. The Foxes enjoyed one strong performance, a 4-0 home victory over fellow relegation favorites Nottingham Forest. I’m not sure that the result was more due to Leicester’s brilliance or Forest’s grotesque inferiority. 

The week after that encouraging victory, the Foxes coughed up another lead against Bournemouth, losing 2-1 on the south coast. Brendan Rodgers’ side has lost all five away encounters, dropping 12 points from winning positions. 

Reeling at the bottom of the table with just four points from nine matches, Rodgers is hanging onto his job as the Foxes flounder. 

If something isn’t done soon to stop the rot, Leicester will find themselves struggling for Premier League survival during the business end of the campaign. 

4. Southampton Relegation Odds

Relegation Odds: +220

Prediction: 17th Place (Not Relegated)

Southampton is in freefall, and Ralph Hasenhuttl isn’t the man to steer them to safety. So the Southampton boss should be the next Premier League manager to be shown the door. 

The Saints are a point clear of safety but have suffered four straight defeats. Back to last season’s end, Southampton has taken eight from a possible 45 points. 

That woeful return is exhibit A when assembling a case for Hasenhuttl’s prospective dismissal.  

3. Brentford Relegation Odds

Relegation Odds: +600

Prediction: 18th Place (Relegated, 3rd-Last Place)

Brentford enjoyed a sizzling start to the Premier League campaign, losing one of their first six. Only Manchester City scored more than Brentford’s 15 goals during that scintillating run. 

Thomas Frank’s side has snatched just a single point in the three matches since, which came against Bournemouth. 

Newcastle taught them a 5-1 lesson at St. James’ Park, a setback causing increased unease in west London. 

Brentford has shown a palpable lack of inventiveness without a creative midfielder to source an incisive pass. Despite that, Ivan Toney has enjoyed a brilliant start, scoring six of the Bees’ 16 goals. 

While Toney is showcasing a heightened ability to score with the league’s best, the decisive lack of secondary scoring will concern Frank. No other player has more than two goals, which might lead to their eventual Premier League demise.  

2. Bournemouth Relegation Odds

Relegation Odds: -120

Prediction: 19th Place (Relegated, 2nd-Last Place)

Most people unaffiliated with Bournemouth Football Club expect them to lose their Premier League status in May. Belying that sentiment, O’Neil’s side is accumulating points rapidly for a relegation favorite. 

They currently sit in eighth place, six points from safety. Usually, teams require about 38 points to maintain Premier League status, meaning Bournemouth needs 26 points in the remaining 29 matches. 

It’s a feasible return for a side that hasn’t lost in five matches. O’Neil has done a remarkable job galvanizing his players since Parker’s dismissal. 

The question is whether the caretaker boss can continually get his players to play beyond their potential. 

1. Nottingham Forest Relegation Odds

Relegation Odds: -303

Prediction: 20th Place (Relegated, Last Place)

Nottingham Forest looks like a team already destined for the Championship. They are currently a mishmash of players devoid of cohesion, chemistry, and confidence. 

Those intangibles come with time; something Forest is quickly running out of. Forest doesn’t have the offensive quality to bail them out of the desperate plight they’ve found themselves in. 

Cooper is a brilliant coach who should be able to get the best out of each individual, but the task ahead is daunting as it is implausible. 

Things can change quickly with a positive result or two, and Cooper will take some confidence in Forest’s 1-1 home draw with Aston Villa. 

But it won’t be enough to see Forest go on a sustained solid run, which they’ll require to remain in the top flight.

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About the Author

Gary Pearson

Read More @newagejourno

Gary Pearson is a freelance sports writer who contributes regularly to BetMGM, specializing in hockey, tennis and soccer coverage.

Gary Pearson is a freelance sports writer who contributes regularly to BetMGM, specializing in hockey, tennis and soccer coverage.