- Southampton is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Nottingham Forest.
- Nottingham Forest has won two straight meetings against Southampton.
- I predict Forest will do no worse than a draw on Saturday.
Two Premier League relegation candidates meet on Saturday at St. Mary’s Stadium as Southampton hosts Nottingham Forest.
Southampton’s first top-flight campaign since 2022-23 got off to a rocky start. Despite playing up a man at Newcastle for all but 28 minutes, they lost the match 1-0.
Forest took an early lead at home against Bournemouth but ultimately settled for a 1-1 draw.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday.
Southampton vs. Nottingham Forest Odds, Premier League
- Southampton Moneyline: +145
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +175
- Draw Moneyline: +240
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-120/-120)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-145), No (+100)
Southampton vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction: Game Spread
My prediction for Saturday’s match is Nottingham Forest Draw, No Bet (-105).
The wrong team is favored in this matchup.
Forest, for all their troubles last season, excelled against newly promoted sides. They finished 3-3-0 (W-D-L) against such teams and won the expected goals battle in all six matches.
Plus, in order for Forest to lose this match outright, Southampton essentially needs to score twice.
Last year, Forest finished 9-7-3 (W-D-L) when they conceded under one goal. When they conceded two or more goals, they finished 0-2-17 (W-D-L).
The odds say Southampton scoring twice is unlikely. Manager Russell Martin’s side is -175 to finish under 1.5 goals.
Plus, Forest matches a trio of historically profitable systems: two from a moneyline standpoint, and one from a spread standpoint.
Let’s start with the latter. Since 2012, road dogs in games 1-6 that won the last meeting by either one or two goals are 37-21-12 ATS, assuming they’re priced between +160 and +650.
When they fall between +160 and +200, such road teams are 4-4-1 (W-D-L).
Those same set of underdogs are also 35.9% SU, including 3-5-1 (W-D-L) between +160 and +200.
Another system suggests the likeliest outcome is a Forest victory.
Road dogs between +175 and +490 win at a 36.4% rate and earn results at a 60.8% clip, assuming three factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between +1 and +4
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -3 and -1
- The team’s previous game margin is between -4 and +0
As a result, I’ll back the Tricky Trees to do no worse than a point on Saturday.
Southampton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 17 at Newcastle United: 0-1, L
- Aug. 10 vs. Getafe: 0-0, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 7 vs. Lazio: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Millwall: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- July 31 at Oxford United: 0-2, L (Friendly)
Nottingham Forest Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 17 vs. Bournemouth: 1-1, D
- Aug. 8 vs. Olympiacos: 4-3, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 2 vs. Villarreal: 0-0, D (Friendly)
- July 26 at Elche: 0-1, L (Friendly)
- July 23 vs. Millwall: 2-1, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Southampton odds and Nottingham Forest odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | May. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Chelsea | Manchester United | May. 16 | 3:15 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Southampton | May. 18 | 7 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Nottingham Forest | May. 18 | 9:15 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Leicester City | Ipswich Town | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Brentford | Fulham | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Arsenal | Newcastle United | May. 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | May. 19 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-3 | 83 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-14-4 | 68 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Aston Villa | 18-9-9 | 63 | 7 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-8-10 | 62 | 12 |
| Brentford | 16-7-13 | 55 | 10 |
| Brighton | 14-14-8 | 55 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Fulham | 14-9-13 | 51 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 9-15-12 | 42 | -5 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-16 | 40 | -17 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-17 | 39 | -11 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 4 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-22 | 22 | -42 |
| Leicester City | 5-7-24 | 22 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-6-28 | 12 | -57 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 13-17-6 | 44.4% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-3 | 65.3% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 20-15-1 | 56.9% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-3 | 40.3% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 18-12-6 | 58.3% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-3 | 43.1% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-18-2 | 47.2% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-4 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 21-14-1 | 59.7% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-14-0 | 61.1% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 13-19-4 | 41.7% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-22-1 | 37.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 18-16-2 | 52.8% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
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