- Sunderland is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home underdog against Chelsea.
- The 'Second Half Over 0.5 Goals' market has hit in 17 of Sunderland's last 18 EPL matches.
- My Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction is Sunderland 2H Over 0.5 (-110).
Sunderland will close a successful EPL campaign as home underdogs against Chelsea.
The Black Cats enter Matchday 38 sitting ninth in the league table. Regis Le Bris’ squad could, depending on other results, earn a European competition placement with a win.
Chelsea faces an outside shot at European competitions. If the Blues falter at home against Tottenham, the best they can do is the Europa Conference League.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction.
Sunderland vs Chelsea: Premier League Odds
Chelsea vs Sunderland Prediction
Based on Sunderland’s attacking success at Chelsea and the Blues’ road defensive struggles, my Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction is Sunderland 2H Over 0.5 (-110).
It’s a tricky spot for Chelsea on Sunday. Sunderland played at Everton on the previous Sunday, while Chelsea faced a midweek match against Tottenham on Tuesday.
It could leave the Chelsea defense vulnerable against an attack that dominated the reverse fixture. Sunderland scored twice at Stamford Bridge, creating 1.6 post-shot xG.
Chelsea hasn’t kept a road clean sheet since a trip to Bournemouth in December. They’re also running into a team that has attacked well as a home underdog recently.
Sunderland closed as a home underdog against Manchester United on May 9. Le Bris’ attack generated 1.25 expected goals, 1.8 post-shot xG and two big chances.
From a metrics standpoint, Chelsea’s defense tends to struggle after halftime. For the season, they’ve surrendered 30.2 expected goals after halftime compared to 24.8 before the break.
As a road favorite, they’ve kept only four road clean sheets. Outside the Bournemouth success, their only other successful defensive efforts came against Burnley, Tottenham and Forest.
Two of those successes saw Chelsea allow over one expected goal. Pair that with a potential lack of motivation, and I like Sunderland to find a tally against a bad defense.
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