- Sunderland is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home underdog against Nottingham Forest.
- 'Second Half Over 0.5 Goals' has hit in 14 straight Sunderland EPL matches.
- My Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest prediction is Sunderland Draw, No Bet (-105).
Nottingham Forest continues their quest for safety on Friday against Sunderland.
Manager Vitor Pereira’s side arrives at Friday’s fixture unbeaten in five league matches. That timeframe includes a 4-1 win over Burnley on Sunday.
Sunderland lost 4-3 at Aston Villa over the weekend. The loss at Villa Park ended a two-game winning streak for Regis Le Bris’ side, which sits two points from sixth place.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest prediction.
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest: Premier League Odds
Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland: Prediction
Based on Nottingham Forest’s lucky attacking run lately, and Sunderland’s strong home form, my Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest prediction is Sunderland Draw, No Bet (-105).
The line strikes me as a bit surprising. Sunderland has dropped all three points at home only three times this year and looked strong in the reverse fixture.
At Forest, the Black Cats won 1-0 as road underdogs while staying level on expected goals.
Forest has since changed managers, but I question if their market rating has gone too far. After all, this team has been very lucky against its underlying metrics, especially on the road.
Entering Friday’s match, the Tricky Trees posted a -6 road goal differential against a -14.5 expected goal differential.
For all of Sunderland’s luck this season, they’ve posted a -3.7 home expected goal differential. To guarantee Sunderland loses this match, one has to believe they will allow multiple goals.
During their recent run, Forest rates out as a strong negative regression candidate in attack. Their 10 goals over the last five matches have come against 5.2 expected goals.
Away from home, Forest has scored 18 goals against 14.9 expected. Only twice all season has the attack cleared 1.5 expected goals away from home.
Conversely, I like Sunderland’s recent attacking record. In their last three fixtures, Le Bris’ side averaged 2.03 xG per 90, up from 1.03 in the first 30 matches.
Given those factors, I predict Sunderland does no worse than a draw on Friday at home.
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