Tottenham vs. Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Nick Hennion @nickhennion Sep 11, 2024, 3:44 PM
  • Tottenham is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Arsenal.
  • Arsenal earned all three points in the most recent North London Derby.
  • I predict the Arsenal team total is the target for Sunday’s fixture.

The latest edition of the North London Derby sees Arsenal travel to face Tottenham with both sides off negative results. 

Arsenal took a lead against Brighton on Matchday 3. However, an early Declan Rice red card in the second half allowed the Seagulls to earn a road draw. 

Tottenham, meanwhile, fell 2-1 on the road against Newcastle United. Through three matches, Ange Postecoglou’s side has only one win. 

Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Sunday’s fixture. 

Tottenham vs. Arsenal Odds, Premier League

  • Tottenham Moneyline: +190
  • Arsenal Moneyline: +125
  • Draw Moneyline: +260
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-185/+130)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (-200), No (+138)

Tottenham vs. Arsenal Prediction: Arsenal Team Total

If forced to make a bet for this match, my prediction would be Arsenal Under 1.5 Goals (+100). However, this is strictly a lean. 

Arsenal cleared this number in both meetings against Spurs last season. However, the underlying metrics suggest they were lucky to do so. 

The Gooners scored four goals from open play and one penalty against Tottenham last season. However, it came against 2.9 post-shot expected goals total and two psxG from open play. 

Just at Tottenham, they managed three tallies from open play off 1.03 xG and 1.06 psxG, per fotmob.com. 

If Tottenham restores defender Micky van de Ven to the Starting XI, it will give them a chance against an overrated Arsenal attack. 

I don’t put much stock into Arsenal’s 2.1 xG output against Brighton. They’re generally better offensively playing without the ball. 

In two prior matches — home to Wolves, at Aston Villa — Arsenal scored four goals off 2.1 xG and 2.6 psxG. 

I recognize Tottenham were a terrible defense last year — 14th in non-penalty xGA per 90 — but they possessed one good combination. 

That’s the quartet of Pedro Porro, van de Ven, Christian Romero and Destiny Udogie. 

When that quartet played against Arsenal on the road, they surrendered only 1.25 non-penalty xG and 0.94 non-penalty psxG. 

Given those factors, it would be the under on Arsenal’s team total or nothing for this match. 

Tottenham Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Sept. 1 at Newcastle United: 1-2, L
  • Aug. 24 vs. Everton: 4-0, W
  • Aug. 19 at Leicester City: 1-1, D
  • Aug. 10 vs. Bayern Munich: 2-3, L (Friendly)
  • Aug. 3 at Bayern Munich: 1-2, L (Friendly)

Arsenal Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Aug. 31 vs. Brighton: 1-1, D
  • Aug. 24 at Aston Villa: 2-0, W
  • Aug. 17 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W
  • Aug. 11 vs. Lyon: 2-0, W (Friendly)
  • Aug. 7 vs. Bayer Leverkusen: 4-1, W (Friendly)

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Tottenham odds and Arsenal odds!

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667
EPL Odds

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.