- West Ham is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Aston Villa.
- Aston Villa has earned points in three straight against West Ham.
- I predict this Same Game Parlay is the best bet for Saturday’s match.
Two clubs with European ambitions — West Ham and Aston Villa — will face off for their 2024 season opener.
Villa finished fourth last season and captured four points from six against West Ham, who rose from 14th to ninth in the table.
Both teams overhauled their rosters this summer, particularly West Ham. They hired new manager Julen Lopetegui and added three defenders to address their bad defense.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
West Ham vs. Aston Villa Odds, Premier League
- West Ham Moneyline: +145
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +170
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-185/+130)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-210), No (+145)
West Ham vs. Aston Villa Prediction: Same Game Parlay
My prediction for West Ham vs. Aston Villa is a Same Game Parlay: West Ham Spread (+0.5) and Under 4.5 Goals (-130).
Although there are many unknowns about both teams, I settled on this pick based on some correlative odds.
There’s heavy juice on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals. However, West Ham over 1.5 goals is -110 with Villa over 1.5 goals priced at +105.
Those prices tell me West Ham should do no worse than a point, a feat they accomplished in all but four home games last year.
Plus, there’s a huge absence for Aston Villa that decreases their win equity.
Defensive midfielder Boubacar Kamara remains out with a knee injury. Last season, manager Unai Emery’s side played markedly worse without him.
In 20 matches with Kamara available, Villa captured 13 wins and dropped all three points only five times for a winning percentage of 65%.
Comparatively, they earned all three points in only seven of 18 matches without him and produced a winning percentage of 38.9%.
Included in the latter sample is their last meeting with West Ham.
In that match, Villa earned a 1-1 draw but lost the expected goals battle 2.02 to 0.66, per fotmob.com.
But, 0.72 of West Ham’s xG tally came beyond stoppage time, so the game proved more defensive than anticipated.
Add in the fact that both teams have more rest than the last meeting, and I’ll back this parlay for what feels like a cheap price.
West Ham Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 10 vs. Celta Vigo: 2-2, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Crystal Palace: 1-3, L (Friendly)
- July 27 vs. Wolves: 1-3, L (Friendly)
- July 20 at Dagenham & Redbridge: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- July 15 at Ferencvaros: 2-2, D (Friendly)
Aston Villa Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 10 at Dortmund: 0-2, L (Friendly)
- Aug. 7 vs. Athletic Club: 3-2, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at America: 0-1, L (Friendly)
- July 31 at RB Leipzig: 0-2, L (Friendly)
- July 27 at Columbus Crew: 1-4, L (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest West Ham United odds and Aston Villa odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | Apr. 22 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | Apr. 23 | 3 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-9 | 59 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-11 | 43 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-4 | 57.6% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 11-22-0 | 33.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
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