- West Ham is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home favorite against Leeds.
- West Ham needs a win and Tottenham loss to avoid relegation this season.
- My West Ham vs Leeds prediction is the Total Over 3.5 Goals (+160).
West Ham will try to save its Premier League status on Sunday as home favorites against Leeds.
The Hammers will begin Matchday 38 occupying the final relegation spot. To avoid dropping to the Championship, the Hammers need a win and a Tottenham loss.
Leeds are confirmed safe and have little motivation for Sunday’s match. If there’s a potential motivation angle, it’s that Leeds enter this match unbeaten in eight (W4-D4).
Check out the Premier League odds and my West Ham vs Leeds prediction.
West Ham vs Leeds: Premier League Odds
Leeds vs West Ham Prediction
Based on West Ham’s table situation and the high-scoring nature of Leeds road matches, my West Ham vs Leeds prediction is the Total Over 3.5 Goals (+160).
West Ham have no choice but to go for it. They can’t afford to play pragmatically when the situation calls for an aggressive attack to try and earn maximum points.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side will begin the match as a positive regression candidate in attack. This season, West Ham scored 43 goals off 47 expected goals.
At home, it’s a measly 16 goals off 25.9 expected goals. Over their last nine at the London Stadium, West Ham averaged 1.77 expected goals per 90 minutes.
Leeds’ road matches are seeing a ton of chances at both ends. Before making opponent adjustments, their 18 road fixtures have averaged 3.04 combined xG per 90.
From an attacking standpoint, Leeds also qualifies as a potential positive regression candidate. Daniel Farke’s side has scored 49 goals off 58 xG this year, including 20 off 24.5 on the road.
When these teams met at Elland Road, Leeds won 2-1. While the match saw three goals off 2.15 xG, the match took place in October.
Recently, these sides met in April during the FA Cup. It proved a raucous 2-2 shootout with almost six combined post-shot xG in the first 90 minutes.
Even by xG – generally worth less than post-shot xG – the sides combined for 4.8 expected goals.
Those factors, along with the game situation, lead me to predict a high-scoring match in London.
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