- West Ham is predicted to be a +1.5-goal underdog against Man City.
- West Ham is winless against Man City in the last 18 league meetings.
- I predict Saturday’s match will clear the pregame total.
Saturday’s Premier League standalone fixture takes place in London as West Ham United welcomes Manchester City.
Both teams earned outright wins in their last game. West Ham captured a 2-0 win as road dogs against Crystal Palace, while City dispatched Ipswich Town 4-1 at home.
City have dominated West Ham recently. They’ve earned all three points in four straight and six of the last seven to extend their unbeaten run in the league to 18 vs. West Ham.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
West Ham vs. Man City Odds, Premier League
- West Ham Moneyline: +600
- Man City Moneyline: -250
- Draw Moneyline: +400
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-140)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-165), No (+110)
West Ham vs. Man City Prediction: Total Goals
My prediction for West Ham vs. Man City is the Total Over 3.5 Goals (+100).
I’m obliged to mention West Ham fit the profile of an underdog that (historically) is live to win outright.
What worries me about West Ham is that they couldn’t defend City whatsoever last year. Given they play on short rest, I question if they reverse that trend.
Across both meetings last year, Pep Guardiola’s side created 2.84 expected goals per 90 and 3.13 post-shot xG per 90, according to fotmob.com.
That marks three straight meetings where City has cleared two expected goals.
Plus, West Ham’s defense still hasn’t figured out how to limit opponent shots. Through two matches, both opponents have managed at least 14 shots.
With enough shots, one would expect City to convert at a high rate.
The good news for West Ham? Their attack has shown glimpses of success against City.
They scored once off 0.4 xG in the last meeting, but they didn’t have Jarrod Bowen. With Bowen in the lineup, the Hammers generated 0.94 xG and 1.34 psxG at home against City.
Lastly, I’m using a bit of betting calculus for this wager.
This game matches a historically profitable total system. Since 2012, games with a closing total of 2.5 or 3.5 are 59% to the over, assuming two factors:
- The visitor’s previous O/U margin is between +0 and +7
- The visitor’s previous game margin is between +0 and +4
Within that system, the over jumps to 61% when the home team is the underdog, including 62.7% over the last three seasons and 64.3% over the last two.
However, this system is saying the bet for this match is over 2.5 goals. But that price is -250.
Pair the price with the system record, and I’m fairly confident this game features at least three goals. Given over 3.5 is +100, I’ll take a 50-50 proposition this game clears the total.
West Ham Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 24 at Crystal Palace: 2-0, W
- Aug. 17 vs. Aston Villa: 1-2, L
- Aug. 10 vs. Celta Vigo: 2-2, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Crystal Palace: 1-3, L (Friendly)
- July 27 vs. Wolves: 1-3, L (Friendly)
Man City Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 24 vs. Ipswich Town: 4-1, W
- Aug. 18 at Chelsea: 2-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Manchester United: 1-1, D
- Aug. 3 vs. Chelsea: 4-2, W (Friendly)
- July 30 vs. Barcelona: 2-2, D (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest West Ham odds and Man City odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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