Wolves vs. Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

  • Wolves is a +1.5-goal home underdog against Arsenal.
  • Arsenal has won each of its last seven EPL matches against Wolverhampton.
  • My Wolves vs. Arsenal prediction focuses on the pregame over/under.

Following a disappointing draw at home against Aston Villa, Arsenal travels for a road meeting against Wolves.ย 

Villa erased a 2-0 deficit against Arsenal, who have drawn two of their last three. In good news, Mikel Artetaโ€™s side hasnโ€™t lost outright since November 2.ย 

Wolves have lost three in a row and have conceded three goals in all three matches. Currently, Wolves sit 17th in the league table and are only safe on goal difference.ย 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Wolves vs. Arsenal prediction.ย 

Wolves vs. Arsenal Odds, Premier League

Wolves vs. Arsenal Prediction

Based on Wolvesโ€™ weakening defensive metrics and Arsenalโ€™s strong offensive record recently, my Wolves vs. Arsenal prediction is Over 2.5 Goals (-150).ย 

The price is a big one to lay, but itโ€™s justified due to the horrific defensive metrics Wolves recorded recently.ย 

Each of their last three opponents โ€“ Nottingham Forest, Newcastle and Chelsea โ€“ scored three goals against Wolves.ย 

Those largely werenโ€™t lucky attacking results either. Wolves conceded those nine goals off 7.3 expected goals and 7.9 post-shot xG, per fbref.com.ย 

Arsenal, even without Bukayo Saka, recorded strong offensive metrics.ย 

Last week against Villa, which sits six spots ahead of Wolves in post-shot xG, Arsenal created 1.33 xG and 1.9 post-shot xG.ย 

The bad news for Arsenal? Central defender William Saliba likely misses out on Saturdayโ€™s fixture.ย 

Thatโ€™s bad news against Wolves, which have shown some offensive spark recently.ย 

Wolves created 1.6 post-shot xG at Newcastle and 1.02 at Chelsea. Theyโ€™re also facing an Arsenal side on short rest after playing a Wednesday Champions League match.ย 

Even if Wolves canโ€™t score against Arsenal, thereโ€™s a path to Arsenal beating this total on their own.ย 

History also likes this spot to back the over.ย 

Since 2012, matches featuring a home dog and a total of 2.5 goals are 112-69 (62%) to the over, assuming the road teamโ€™s last match cleared the total by at least 1.5 goals.ย 

Pair that trend with the fact Wolves have seen nine straight day matches clear 2.5 goals when theyโ€™re a home dog, and itโ€™s the over or nothing on Saturday.

Premier League Match Schedule

First Bet Offer $1,500 FBO
HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
BrightonChelseaFeb. 143 p.m.Amex Stadium
Leicester CityArsenalFeb. 157:30 a.m.King Power Stadium
Aston VillaIpswich TownFeb. 1510 a.m.Villa Park
FulhamNottingham ForestFeb. 1510 a.m.Craven Cottage
Man CityNewcastle UnitedFeb. 1510 a.m.Etihad Stadium
SouthamptonBournemouthFeb. 1510 a.m.St. Mary's Stadium
West Ham UnitedBrentfordFeb. 1510 a.m.London Stadium
Crystal PalaceEvertonFeb. 1512:30 p.m.Selhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesFeb. 169 a.m.Anfield
TottenhamManchester UnitedFeb. 1611:30 a.m.Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Premier League Against the Spread Records

TeamATS RecordATS%Home ATS RecordHome ATS%Road ATS RecordRoad ATS%
Arsenal9-10-547.9%3-6-337.5%6-4-258.3%
Aston Villa8-15-135.4%3-8-129.2%5-7-041.7%
Bournemouth16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Brentford14-8-262.5%8-5-061.5%6-3-263.6%
Brighton & Hove Albion12-11-152.1%4-7-036.4%8-4-165.4%
Chelsea9-13-241.7%4-7-137.5%5-6-145.8%
Crystal Palace13-8-360.4%4-5-345.8%9-3-075.0%
Everton12-9-256.5%6-5-154.2%6-4-159.1%
Fulham14-8-262.5%5-7-041.7%8-2-275.0%
Ipswich Town10-13-143.8%4-9-030.8%6-4-159.1%
Leicester City11-12-147.9%5-7-041.7%6-5-154.2%
Liverpool13-9-158.7%5-5-150.0%8-4-066.7%
Manchester City7-17-029.2%3-8-027.3%4-9-030.8%
Manchester United10-12-245.8%5-7-142.3%5-5-150.0%
Newcastle United13-10-156.3%7-5-058.3%6-5-154.2%
Nottingham Forest16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Southampton9-12-343.8%2-8-122.7%7-4-261.5%
Tottenham Hotspur9-15-037.5%4-8-033.3%5-7-041.7%
West Ham United12-11-152.1%4-7-137.5%8-4-066.7%
Wolverhampton Wanderers10-12-245.8%5-6-145.8%5-6-145.8%

Premier League Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Liverpool17-5-15635
Arsenal14-8-25027
Nottingham Forest14-5-54713
Chelsea12-7-54316
Manchester City12-5-74113
Newcastle United12-5-74113
Bournemouth11-7-64013
Aston Villa10-7-737-3
Fulham9-9-6364
Brighton8-10-634-3
Brentford9-4-11310
Crystal Palace7-9-830-2
Manchester United8-5-1129-6
Tottenham8-3-132711
West Ham United7-6-1127-17
Everton6-8-926-5
Wolves5-4-1519-18
Leicester City3-5-1517-28
Ipswich Town3-7-1416-27
Southampton2-3-199-36

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.