Presidents Cup Betting Preview: Where to Find Value

There’s a little thing I’ve dubbed the Scottie Scheffler Conundrum which sprouts up at PGA Tour events throughout the season. Sure, it can be invoked at a major championship or a signature event, but this particular theorem is best saved for those few weeks when the game’s No. 1-ranked player isn’t competing against the best of the best, such as The American Express (which he won this year) or the CJ Cup Byron Nelson (where he was third) or the 3M Open (runner-up).

At each of these events, Scheffler opened the week at +300 or shorter. Of course, he was also a massive favorite for good reason.

And therein lies the conundrum: In these specific instances, it was difficult to back Scheffler at such a short number, but it might’ve been even more difficult to back anyone else to beat him.

It’s only fitting that Scheffler will lead the U.S. into this week’s Presidents Cup, where the aforementioned conundrum can similarly be applied to the entire team.

To wit: It’s tough to wrap our collective minds around backing the red, white and blue at a mind-bogglingly short -450 price, but we certainly don’t want to bet against ‘em, either.

All of which means that when it comes to finding actionable wagers for this week’s competition, we have to get a little creative instead of laying the massive juice.

Let’s find some edges and play some hunches for this week’s festivities at Medinah.

Day 1 Winner: USA (-150)

There’s a reason why U.S. captain Brandt Snedeker decided to lead off with a fourball session on Thursday morning: He believes – and rightly so – that his squad holds a bigger advantage in this format than in foursomes.

That’s hardly a stretch. Two years ago at Royal Montreal, the U.S. team raced out to a 5-0 lead after the opening fourball session, only to have the Internationals win all five foursomes matches the very next day. In fact, the U.S. won eight of nine points in the fourball format, which obviously puts an onus on aggressive play and making birdies.

It’s not always so lopsided, though. The Internationals have actually earned more points in fourballs than their counterparts in three of the last seven editions of the Presidents Cup. What tends to separate things, though, is the home-field advantage. In each of those instances, the Internationals were playing outside the United States.

When playing at home, the U.S. side has more than doubled up the opponents in this format to the tune of 20-9 since 2013. We have to go back to Harding Park in 2009 to find an instance when the U.S. didn’t win fourballs and the teams merely tied in this format that year.

More often than not, the more talented twosome will triumph in fourballs. This isn’t exactly expert analysis, but it’s something I espouse at the Zurich Classic every year: If a great player will more often beat a good player, then two great players have an even better chance of beating two good players.

That’s not to suggest that all of the Americans are great and all of the Internationals are merely good, but in general, we’ll see a talent disparity between the players this week and there’s no format where it manifests more than this one. Expect the U.S. to get off to another hot start and if this number isn’t juicy enough, maybe we take a swing at a 3.5-1.5 lead at a more palatable +500.

Top U.S. Points Scorer: Chris Gotterup (+1100)

There are a few ways in which the Presidents Cup has bragging rights over its more famous Ryder Cup cousin. The most obvious one is that rather than each captain listing his teams/players in order, they match ‘em up against each other, meaning we can get some juicier matchups.

Another is that more players compete over the first two sessions. I don’t know that the Ryder Cup would be better as a four-day competition, but knowing that money rules the world, I’m surprised the powers-that-be haven’t opted for 33 percent more ticket sales and television revenue and everything else.

Anyway, this is a very long-winded way of explaining that since the first two sessions will each have only two players sitting for each team, those on the back end of the lineup have a greater opportunity to potentially play at least four matches, if not all five.

Gotterup is a rookie in name only and when he was named as a shoo-in captain’s pick, he still sounded miffed that he hadn’t been added to last year’s Ryder Cup roster. I love that he plays with grit; I love that he sounds as fired up as anyone on this squad.

There are some absolute parallels between Gotterup and Cameron Young at Bethpage last year, as he turned out to be one of the lone bright spots on the U.S. side.

On a week which is seemingly offering up too much chalk across the board, I’m going to back the ninth-biggest individual odds on the U.S. side, believing that Gotterup will play at least four matches and hoping that a strong performance during the week could get him into all five.

Sam Burns (+600) remains intriguing at nearly half this price and Justin Thomas (+1600) feels the same at an even bigger number, but Gotterup absolutely makes the most sense at a place which should suit his game.

Top International Points Scorer: Min Woo Lee (+750)

It’s hard to believe that just two years ago, Taylor Pendrith played all five sessions for the International side, while Lee only played two. He teamed with countryman Adam Scott to lose a close match, 1-down, to Collin Morikawa and Sahith Theegala in the second match off on Thursday morning, then sat on both Friday and through two sessions on Saturday before getting a half-point in singles against Wyndham Clark on Sunday.

Much as with Gotterup, I’m targeting a player here with a little chip on his shoulder. Even though former captain Mike Weir isn’t a part of this team, you just know Min Woo is itching to prove he made a few poor decisions at Royal Montreal.

Earlier this year, I interviewed Lee on PGA Tour Radio and suggested that he looked like a more mature player inside the ropes, perhaps one who’d started taking things a bit more seriously. “No,” he contested. “I’m just better now.” I loved that answer and while he only showed spurts of that talent throughout this season, it feels like this could be the stage for his big coming-out party – the kind which could lead to a major championship title contention or two next season.

Again, we’re at least seeking a player in this market who should play a majority (if not all) of the sessions and it’s tough to think that Lee will sit like he did two years ago, especially with the likes of Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Ryo Hisatsune and Nico Echavarria theoretically at the bottom of this roster.

Considering Si Woo Kim (+500) might find himself matched up against ol’ pal Scottie Scheffler a few times, the only other name in this market which has my interest is Adam Scott (+600), who is fresh off a share of second place at the BMW PGA Championship and has more experience in this event than anyone. Even so, I’d rather eschew the scar tissue and put my money with a motivated Min Woo.