Week 16 of the NFL brings us a handful of exciting matchups to wager on. After checking out the NFL odds, I’ve found some teams that I think have a lot of value as underdogs playing at home.
Here’s a look at a few of my favorite pro football underdog lines this week.
49ers at Titans (+3.5)
- Date – Thursday, Dec. 23rd
- Time – 8:20 P.M. EST on NFL Network
- Venue – Nissan Stadium
The Titans have lost three of their last five games but should be getting back some much-needed help on both sides of the ball in this game.
Wide receiver A.J. Brown and defensive back Chris Jackson have been designated for return from the injured reserve list. Coach Mike Vrabel also said that Julio Jones is a game-time decision. The Titans have only managed to win one game without Brown since he suffered a chest injury.
I believe that the passing attack will be a point of focus for the Titans with A.J. Brown back in the lineup. Even though the 49ers don’t allow many yards per game through the air on average (214.9), I think the Titans will be able to move the ball through the air efficiently. Tennessee has the 12th-best completion rate in the league (66.15%), while the 49ers have the 5th-worst completion rate allowed (68.29%).
On the ground, D’Onta Foreman is filling in nicely while Derrick Henry is getting closer to a potential return to the field. In his last three outings, Foreman has put up two 100-yard performances.
Tennessee’s defense should also help keep them in this game. The Titans are second in rushing yards allowed per game (86.9), and over their past three games, they’ve only allowed an average of 49.3 yards to opposing teams. San Francisco is a team that likes to run the football, ranking seventh in attempts per game (29.3) and yards per game (126.6).
I think the Titans have a fighting chance if they get Brown or Jones back and can use their passing attack to stop San Francisco from stacking the box. I’m taking Tennessee +3.5.
Buccaneers at Panthers (+10.5)
- Date- Sunday, Dec. 26th
- Time- 1 P.M. EST on FOX
- Venue- Bank of America Stadium
Tom Brady will be without two of his best weapons in this matchup. Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette are scheduled to miss this game due to injuries they sustained in last week’s rivalry game against the New Orleans Saints.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ offense looked dreadful in that game. The Saints shut out Tampa Bay, with an ugly final score of 9-0.
This year, the Bucs are already 2-5 against the spread as a road team. I think 10.5 points may be too many for the Bucs to cover, considering they’re down a starting running back and one of their best receivers.
The Carolina Panthers‘ 3rd down defense is what will keep them in this game. They have the 8th-best third down conversion rate allowed (36.87%), while the Buccaneers only converted on one of eight third downs last week after Godwin and Fournette left the game.
Additionally, the Panthers are ranked second in passing yards allowed per game. Tampa Bay is a pass-first offense, averaging 43.6 passes per game, which is the most in the league.
Taking into account all of the Buccaneers’ injuries, coupled with their inability to cover the spread on the road, I think I’ll take Carolina +10.5.
Pro Football Underdog Lines: Home Teams in Week 16
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