Week 15 of the NFL season is here, and there are a lot of exciting games on the schedule that could impact the playoff picture.
Looking at the latest NFL odds, three NFL spreads stand out to me.
Which spreads are those? Read below to find out.
Chiefs (-3) at Chargers
The Kansas City Chiefs are road favorites against their division rival, the Los Angeles Chargers, who trail Kansas City by just one game for the AFC West lead.
When these two teams played in Week 3 at Arrowhead Stadium, Los Angeles got the road win 30-24. However, I think that this time will be different because Kansas City has taken much better care of the football in the last five weeks. They have recorded a positive turnover margin in each of their last five games, while they had a negative turnover margin in each of the six games prior.
In their last meeting, the Chiefs had four turnovers against the Chargers. They have had four total turnovers in their previous five games.
Kansas City also seems to have the edge on defense. Both teams average 27 points per game on offense, but the Chiefs are sixth in points allowed (20.6), while the Chargers rank 26th in this category (25.8). What’s even more impressive is that since Week 8, the Chiefs have only allowed 10.8 points per game. The Chiefs are also tied for fifth in the NFL for yards allowed per play (5.9).
If the Chiefs’ defense continues that level of production and their offense takes care of the football, I think they will cover this spread.
Titans (-2) at Steelers
In the 2021 season, the Tennessee Titans have been a pretty reliable team against the spread with an 8-5 record. As for the Pittsburgh Steelers, they have the exact opposite record at 5-8.
The Titans average four more points per game (24.9) than the Steelers (20.9). Plus, Tennessee allows fewer points per game, only allowing 22.3 points per game compared to the 24.8 allowed by Pittsburgh.
In my opinion, the one hope Pittsburgh has is to cause turnovers. The Titans have the sixth-most giveaways in the NFL (21), but the problem for the Steelers is they have trouble creating takeaways, ranking 25th in the NFL (13).
Pittsburgh is 4-2 in the six games that they have had a positive turnover margin but just 2-4-1 when they do not. So if the Steelers do not force turnovers, the Titans will win outright and cover.
Bengals (+1.5) at Broncos
I like another road team to cover here. I think the Cincinnati Bengals match well with the Denver Broncos because they can stop the run.
The Bengals rank fourth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (93.1), and the Broncos are a team that relies on controlling the clock. They are fifth in the NFL in that regard, with an average time of possession of 31:36.
Denver also struggles when they face teams with a record over .500. They are 5-2 against teams under .500 but are just 2-4 against teams that are .500 or better.
The Broncos also tend to struggle against teams that score more points per game than they do (21.2). When they face a team that currently ranks higher than them in this category, they are just 2-5, compared to 5-1 when facing offenses that score fewer points.
The Bengals are averaging 27.2 points per game. With that in mind, I think their offense and shutdown run defense will be enough to carry them to a win.
See More NFL Spreads
These are three picks that I like from the NFL spreads this week. Do you agree with these picks, or do you have other NFL bets in mind?
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