- The Twins (62-56) are -200 favorites vs the Rangers (54-66)
- Rangers starting pitcher: Kohei Arihara (0-1), 4.76 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan (9-5), 3.92 ERA
- Watch the game on BSN
The Texas Rangers (+165) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-200) on Sunday, August 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Rangers vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rangers are 52-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 55-62 ATS.
Rangers vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rangers | +1.5 -120 | O 8.5 -115 | +165 |
| Twins | -1.5 +100 | U 8.5 -105 | -200 |
Rangers vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s matchup with 57.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rangers and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 31 games (+18.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Martin Perez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 20 of his last 23 games (+17.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 42 away games (+15.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 33 games (+13.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+12.25 Units / 25% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 32 games (+19.05 Units / 53% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 23 games at home (+18.10 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Over in 21 of his last 36 games (+16.60 Units / 46% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 38 games at home (+13.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 46 games at home (+13.75 Units / 24% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rangers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 42 away games (+8.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.65 Units / 34% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 116 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.50 Units / 40% ROI)
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 66-52 against the Run Line (+9.45 Units / 6.16% ROI).
- 52-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.25 Units / -9.8% ROI
- 57-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.45 Units / 1.11% ROI
- 51-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.25 Units / -8.66% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 55-62 against the Run Line (-9.5 Units / -6.74% ROI).
- 62-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.1% ROI
- 55-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -1.86% ROI
- 53-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.4 Units / -5.72% ROI
Kohei Arihara: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The hardest ball hit off of Kohei Arihara was 111.5 MPH — tied for 12th hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 108.3
Joseph Ryan: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 11% (4/36) against Joe Ryan — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (79/287) against Joe Ryan this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 25 of Joe Ryan’s 130 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 19%) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 35% — fourth Percentile.
Joe Ryan has allowed a slugging percentage of .528 (65 Total Bases / 123 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .367 — fourth Percentile.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Rangers are just 42-8 (.840) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Rangers are just 51-60 (.459) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Rangers are just 24-136 (.150) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Rangers are 9-8 (.529) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 9-23 (.281) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
The Twins are 55-17 (.764) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Twins are just 53-7 (.883) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .298 (7,288 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Rangers hitters have a swing rate of 37% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .296 (12,589 PA’s) since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .301 (3,154 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .604 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .570.
Twins hitters have just 55 strikeouts in 348 PA’s (16%) against RHP this month (16 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins hitters are slugging .421 against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Twins hitters are slugging .423 on the road since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 104 of 1,071 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 431 of 4,567 batters (9%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 56 of 506 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Twins pitchers over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Twins pitchers this month (16 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Garlick (Twins): Ribcage, D10
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
- Kole Calhoun (Rangers): Heel, D10
- Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
- Spencer Howard (Rangers): Shoulder, D15
- Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Forearm, D60
- Jonathan Gray (Rangers): Side, D15
- Joseph Barlow (Rangers): Finger, D15
- Dennis Santana (Rangers): Ankle, D15
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