- The Mets are -155 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays starting pitcher: Jalen Beeks
- Mets starting pitcher: Justin Verlander
- Watch the game on SNY
The Tampa Bay Rays (+125) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-155) on Tuesday, May 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Rays vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 31-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 16-26 ATS.
Rays vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -155 | O 8.5 +100 | +125 |
| Mets | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -120 | -155 |
Rays vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 70.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Rays vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Lowe has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 14 away games (+17.95 Units / 128% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+10.80 Units / 68% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 14 away games (+10.30 Units / 74% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+9.50 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.85 Units / 90% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.85 Units / 58% ROI)
Mets vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Mets vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Mets vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Mets vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 42 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 42 games (+14.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 42 games (+12.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games (+9.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+6.25 Units / 15% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+5.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.55 Units / 9% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 25-17 against the Run Line (+9.3 Units / 19.31% ROI).
- 31-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.85 Units / 21.8% ROI
- 23-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.05 Units / 10.88% ROI
- 16-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.55 Units / -20.76% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 16-26 against the Run Line (-11.05 Units / -21.62% ROI).
- 20-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.7 Units / -21.22% ROI
- 18-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.7 Units / -16.52% ROI
- 23-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.2 Units / 6.98% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jalen Beeks has thrown his changeup 54% of the time (41/76) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Jalen Beeks has thrown his changeup 44% of the time (38/86) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Jalen Beeks has thrown his changeup 38% of the time (128/337) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Jalen Beeks has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (135/277) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .503 (710 PA’s) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .706 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .222 (266 PA’s) versus the top of the order since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .323 — 98th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .216 (352 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .307 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .214 (467 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .302 — 100th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Rays are 7-4 (.636) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .277.
The Rays are 7-7 (.500) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Rays are 6-3 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Rays are 2-10 (.167) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Mets are 108-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Mets are just 1-5 (.167) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Mets are just 0-19 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .106.
The Mets are 41-31 (.569) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have an OPS of .924 (304 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
Rays hitters are slugging .562 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .856 (1,616 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Rays hitters are slugging .513 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .335 (5,322 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
The Mets have scored first in 66% of their home games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have just 202 strikeouts in 1,028 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have just 1,539 strikeouts in 7,799 PA’s (20%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have won 67% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .187 against Rays pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 157 of 1,561 batters (10%) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have walked 37 of 362 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 57% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- James Yacabonis (Mets): Quad, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D60
- Daniel Vogelbach (Mets): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Elbow, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Tomás Nido (Mets): Eye, D10
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor Strain, D60
- Yandy DÃaz (Rays): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Shawn Armstrong (Rays): Neck, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
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