- The Braves are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck, 8.30 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Jesse Chavez, 4.90 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit CoolToday Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-145) on Monday, March 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in North Port.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Red Sox vs Braves Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Red Sox are 13-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 10-11 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -155 | O 10 -110 | +120 |
| Braves | -1.5 +125 | U 10 -110 | -145 |
Red Sox vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s Spring Training matchup with 72.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Red Sox vs Braves and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 86% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.20 Units / 30% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games at home (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 14-12 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 1.84% ROI).
- 13-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 6.62% ROI
- 13-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 3.16% ROI
- 11-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -11.65% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 10-11 against the Run Line (-1.7 Units / -6.75% ROI).
- 11-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.45 Units / 4.74% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 5.66% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -13.06% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
8 of Tanner Houck’s 29 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) were backdoor last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.
Tanner Houck allowed a slugging percentage of just .227 (30 Total Bases / 132 ABs) against right-handed batters last season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .358 — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Houck walked 14 of 101 left-handed batters (14%) last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — fifth Percentile.
Tanner Houck had a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (127/244) last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .439 (18-for-41) against Jesse Chavez on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 7th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .327 — fifth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a line drive rate of 32% (33/104) against Jesse Chavez last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fifth Percentile.
Jesse Chavez located 63% of his pitches away (183/290) on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of just 35% (36/104) against Jesse Chavez last season — tied for 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — ninth Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 159-22 (.878) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox batted .265 against LHP last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .443 against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Braves hitters slugged .486 on pitches 95 mph or greater last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .837 (1,216 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .753 (4,444 PA’s) against RHP last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 415 times last season — most in MLB.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games on the road since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 4.59 (735.0 IP) at home last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .185 against Braves pitchers with the shift last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
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