- The Padres are -155 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Corey Kluber
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Boston Red Sox (+125) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-155) on Sunday, May 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Red Sox vs Padres Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 26-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 21-25 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -155 | O 9 +100 | +125 |
| Padres | -1.5 +125 | U 9 -120 | -155 |
Red Sox vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 33 games (+15.55 Units / 47% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+12.55 Units / 63% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 41 games (+12.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.20 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+12.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 46 games (+10.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.30 Units / 76% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.30 Units / 47% ROI)
Padres vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Padres vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Padres vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Corey Kluber | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 46 games (+16.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 33 games (+13.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games (+12.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+10.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+7.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 39 games (+18.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 36 games (+17.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+0.60 Units / 3% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+0.55 Units / 2% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 26-20 against the Run Line (+3.7 Units / 6.2% ROI).
- 26-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.3 Units / 16.02% ROI
- 29-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.55 Units / 25.07% ROI
- 15-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.55 Units / -34.18% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 21-25 against the Run Line (-9.65 Units / -15.83% ROI).
- 20-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.85 Units / -23.69% ROI
- 14-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.95 Units / -38.51% ROI
- 30-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.85 Units / 29.91% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 26% (17/65) against Corey Kluber this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 42% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .341 (56-for-164) against Corey Kluber with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: .249 — fifth Percentile.
Corey Kluber has an average fastball velocity of just 88.1 MPH this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .367 (51-for-139) against Corey Kluber’s inside fastball since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: .257 — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .093 (4-for-43) against Michael Wacha — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .239 — 100th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has allowed an OPS of just .304 (48 PA’s) — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .686 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .227 (5-for-22) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .343 — 91st Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 47% of the time (113/238) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Red Sox are 11-16 (.407) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Red Sox are 20-1 (.952) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Red Sox are 14-9 (.609) after a win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Red Sox are 9-4 (.692) after a home win this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .542.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Padres are 8-1 (.889) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Padres are just 4-80 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Padres are 21-31 (.404) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Padres are just 0-21 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .453 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .351.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .420 (169 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .358 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .223 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Padres are batting just .202 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have drawn 139 walks in 1,150 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .165 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 28 of 407 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Red Sox have have still managed to win 46% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.3 MPH (1,174 batted balls) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 35% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 481.0 feet — — tied for 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 455.8
The Padres have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Padres vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Justin Turner (Red Sox): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
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