- The Phillies are -155 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Corey Kluber
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter
- Watch the game on FOX
The Boston Red Sox (+130) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-155) on Saturday, May 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Red Sox vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 20-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 13-20 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -155 | O 9 -105 | +130 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | U 9 -115 | -155 |
Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 63.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+14.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+13.30 Units / 66% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.80 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.80 Units / 68% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.10 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+14.35 Units / 96% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+13.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 games at home (+12.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+11.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.75 Units / 44% ROI)
Phillies vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Phillies vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -115 |
| Bailey Falter | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 34 games (+14.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+12.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 34 games (+12.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games (+9.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.85 Units / 30% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.10 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+1.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 20-14 against the Run Line (+5.4 Units / 12.54% ROI).
- 20-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 18.87% ROI
- 23-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.1 Units / 32.75% ROI
- 10-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.85 Units / -41.66% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 13-20 against the Run Line (-13.7 Units / -29.78% ROI).
- 15-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.3 Units / -15.72% ROI
- 15-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -9.63% ROI
- 17-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 2.2% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corey Kluber has an average fastball velocity of just 88.1 MPH this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 11% (2/18) against Corey Kluber — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 22% (10/45) against Corey Kluber this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Corey Kluber has allowed at least one HR in each of his last eight games dating back to October 2nd, 2022 — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 31% (22 SO in 70 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (44/244) against Bailey Falter this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 13th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 10% (5/48) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 16% (22 SO in 135 PAs) this season — tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 12th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Red Sox are 11-11 (.500) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Red Sox are just 7-76 (.084) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Red Sox are 6-6 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Red Sox are 4-13 (.235) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .108.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Phillies are just 0-7 (.000) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Phillies are just 88-7 (.926) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Phillies are just 0-8 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .460 (126 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .382 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Red Sox hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 388 of their 1,322 plate appearances (29%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
29% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Phillies are batting .274 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Phillies hitters have drawn 22 walks in 417 PA’s (5%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies are batting .336 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 20 of 301 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.33 (783.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 5 of 115 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 12 double plays in 216 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 6.33 (159.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.48.
Phillies pitchers have walked 4 of 105 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% with runners in scoring position this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Andrew Bellatti (Phillies): Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
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