- The Yankees are -200 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta, 16.20 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt, 9.81 ERA
- Watch the game on YES
The Boston Red Sox (+165) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the New York Yankees (-200) on Thursday, March 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Tampa.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Red Sox are 8-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 4-3 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -110 | O 10 -110 | +165 |
| Yankees | -1.5 -110 | U 10 -110 | -200 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 67.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yolmer Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+2.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+1.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.60 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- No trends found
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 80 games (+9.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.15 Units / 12% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 80 games at home (+13.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+11.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 61 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 9-2 against the Run Line (+8.05 Units / 60.75% ROI).
- 8-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +9 Units / 64.06% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.55 Units / -4.53% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -3.73% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 4-3 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 5.65% ROI).
- 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -3.4% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 35.67% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -44.37% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta walked 73 of 773 batters (9%) last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Nick Pivetta induced opposing hitters to ground into just 6 double plays in 146 opportunities (4%) last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — second Percentile.
Nick Pivetta elevated 43% of his pitches (939/2,163) in non-two strike counts last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta walked 24 of 219 batters (11%) versus the bottom of the order last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — fourth Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Clarke Schmidt allowed a just .176 SLG vs right-handed batters (13th best)– 88th Percentile and .696 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (third worst among qualified RPs)– second Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt allowed an OBP of just .267 (75 PA’s) with runners in scoring position last season — 14th best among among 103 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .330 — 87th Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt allowed an OPS of .797 (96 PA’s) vs left-handed batters last season — 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .664 — 10th Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt allowed a slugging percentage of .538 (28 Total Bases / 52 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .347 — third Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Yankees are 28-4 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .258 last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox are batting .259 since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters have drawn 890 walks in 8,783 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees batted just .214 with two outs last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.176 (2,320 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 5.24 (663.1 IP) against division opponents last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
The Red Sox pitchers allowed 357 barreled balls last season — tied for 2nd most in MLB.
The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.1 MPH (4,136 batted balls) last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 47% of the time last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Yankees – No Injuries Reported
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
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