- The Brewers are -165 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Kansas City Royals (+140) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-165) on Sunday, May 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Royals vs Brewers Over/Under is 12 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 12-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 18-21 ATS.
Royals vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -135 | O 12 -250 | +140 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +110 | U 12 +200 | -165 |
Royals vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Pratto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+9.50 Units / 68% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 33 games (+9.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 61% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.75 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Joey Wiemer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+11.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+11.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+9.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+8.40 Units / 25% ROI)
Brewers vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Brewers vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Brewers vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Brewers vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Lyles | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
| Colin Rea | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.20 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.55 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.70 Units / 28% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+5.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 38 games (+4.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games at home (+1.70 Units / 6% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 16-25 against the Run Line (-12.65 Units / -25.07% ROI).
- 12-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.1 Units / -33.25% ROI
- 19-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.1 Units / -6.84% ROI
- 20-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -2% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 18-21 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -6.08% ROI).
- 22-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 5.47% ROI
- 17-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.85 Units / -15.68% ROI
- 21-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.35 Units / 5.58% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .806 (58 Total Bases / 72 ABs) versus the top of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .409 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (151 Total Bases / 362 ABs) with two-strikes in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .243 (88-for-362) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (481/948) of the time since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colin Rea has allowed a BABIP of .222 this season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .298 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .269 (14-for-52) against Colin Rea in non-two strike counts this season — tied for 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .340 — 90th Percentile.
Colin Rea has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 10 innings — Alex Faedo has the longest active streak at 12.
Opponents are hitting just .059 (1-for-17) against Colin Rea on fastballs away this season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .256 — 96th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Royals are just 5-54 (.085) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .351.
The Royals are just 8-11 (.421) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Royals are just 12-29 (.293) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 3-5 (.375) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .687.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Brewers are just 5-9 (.357) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Brewers are 21-12 (.636) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Brewers are 6-79 (.071) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 16% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 26% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Royals hitters have put 44% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals hitters are slugging just .390 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 114 strikeouts in 367 PA’s (31%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .220 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of just .278 (367 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Brewers hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Royals pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Royals have won just 11% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Brewers pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Brewers vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D60
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Kyle Isbel (Royals): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Lopez (Royals): Appendicitis, D10
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Head, D15
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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