- The Padres are -300 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Carlos Hernández
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Kansas City Royals (+240) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-300) on Wednesday, May 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).
The Royals vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 13-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 21-22 ATS.
Royals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +2.5 -135 | O 8.5 -105 | +240 |
| Padres | -2.5 +105 | U 8.5 -115 | -300 |
Royals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Pratto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+10.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+10.05 Units / 63% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+9.50 Units / 79% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+8.70 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 43 games (+14.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+11.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+9.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.65 Units / 127% ROI)
Padres vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
Padres vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -110 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Padres vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 -105 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+4.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 away games (+3.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.60 Units / 13% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 36 games (+15.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 33 games (+14.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+3.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+2.40 Units / 18% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 17-27 against the Run Line (-14 Units / -25.93% ROI).
- 13-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.4 Units / -31.72% ROI
- 21-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -4.73% ROI
- 21-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -4.56% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 21-22 against the Run Line (-6.35 Units / -11.01% ROI).
- 20-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.45 Units / -16.99% ROI
- 14-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.55 Units / -34.19% ROI
- 27-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.85 Units / 25.51% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .341 (59-for-173) against Carlos Hernandez since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .228 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .241 (39-for-162) against Carlos Hernandez with two-strikes since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .155 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .341 (59-for-173) against Carlos Hernandez since last season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .226 — first Percentile.
Carlos Hernandez has allowed an OBP of .324 (185 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .230 — second Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
5 of Yu Darvish’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 7th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .129 (4-for-31) against Yu Darvish with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — 95th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 54% of the time (76/141) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has a strikeout rate of 46% (25 SO in 54 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 88th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Royals are just 5-56 (.082) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
The Royals are just 3-6 (.333) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .684.
The Royals are just 13-27 (.325) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Royals are just 9-12 (.429) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Padres are 21-31 (.404) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Padres are just 0-18 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Padres are 15-2 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Padres are just 4-77 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .089.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 26% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .297 (1,632 PA’s) this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .321.
The Royals are just 5-56 (.082) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .209 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
The Padres are batting just .202 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Padres are batting just .226 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Padres are batting just .195 with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have walked 753 of 7,933 batters (10%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have allowed a run 38% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have walked 164 of 1,684 batters (10%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 37% of their games this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Padres pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 61% of opposing batters this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Padres vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- José Azocar (Padres): Elbow, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Kyle Isbel (Royals): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Lopez (Royals): Appendicitis, D10
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Head, D60
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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