- The Royals (53-80) are -110 favorites vs the Tigers (51-81)
- Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley (2-7), 5.22 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Michael Pineda (2-6), 5.27 ERA
- Watch the game on BSDET
The Kansas City Royals (-110) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (-110) on Saturday, September 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Detroit.
The Royals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Royals vs Tigers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 53-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 58-71 ATS.
Royals vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 -115 | -110 |
| Tigers | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -105 | -110 |
Royals vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 57.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 18 away games (+15.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+13.05 Units / 68% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+12.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 away games (+12.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 40 away games (+11.45 Units / 20% ROI)
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Austin Meadows has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Austin Meadows has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+8.65 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jonathan Schoop has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+8.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Miguel Cabrera has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 79 games (+15.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 40 games (+5.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 31 away games (+0.45 Units / 1% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Tigers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 78 games (+12.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games (+8.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+5.15 Units / 36% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 61-68 against the Run Line (-19.05 Units / -11.31% ROI).
- 53-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.4 Units / -8.26% ROI
- 65-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -2 Units / -1.4% ROI
- 61-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -11 Units / -7.64% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 58-71 against the Run Line (-23.35 Units / -14.36% ROI).
- 49-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -16 Units / -11.7% ROI
- 47-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.4 Units / -21.95% ROI
- 72-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.95 Units / 14.59% ROI
Jonathan Heasley: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jon Heasley has walked 23 of 160 left-handed batters (14%) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Jon Heasley has allowed an OPS of 1.121 (125 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .742 — 0 Percentile.
Jon Heasley has walked 12 of 72 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 57% (179/316) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Michael Pineda: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Pineda has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.6 MPH on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season (393 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 90.7
Michael Pineda has located his breaking pitches down 85% of the time (530/626) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 99th Percentile.
Michael Pineda has allowed a slugging percentage of .523 (145 Total Bases / 277 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: .388 — fourth Percentile.
Michael Pineda has allowed a slugging percentage of .481 (290 Total Bases / 603 ABs) since the start of last season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: .401 — fifth Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Royals are just 4-34 (.105) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.
The Royals are just 21-43 (.328) on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Royals are just 53-68 (.438) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Royals are just 5-72 (.065) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Tigers are 8-0 (1.000) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Tigers are just 35-7 (.833) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Tigers are just 50-73 (.407) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Tigers are just 6-64 (.086) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 587 strikeouts in 2,993 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .985 (2,095 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.
Royals hitters have just 259 strikeouts in 1,300 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters are averaging just 3.79 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .275 (3,504 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .594 (3,504 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .319 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Tigers hitters have 489 strikeouts in 1,664 PA’s (29%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have walked 501 of 5,154 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have walked 106 of 1,168 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Royals have won just 7% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 13 of 98 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Tigers vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Schoop (Tigers): Ankle, D10
- Rony García (Tigers): Bicep, D60
- Tarik Skubal (Tigers): Arm, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Mental Health, D10
- Eric Haase (Tigers): Abdominal, Day-to-Day
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): Forearm, D60
- Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Salvador Perez (Royals): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D10
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Forearm, D15
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