What a difference a month made for the San Francisco 49ers. In October, this team was 3-4 and in danger of falling out of the NFC playoff race. Now, NFL betting odds have the 49ers as road favorites against the Seahawks, and they’re in the race for a wild card spot.
So this would be an excellent time to look at what’s changed the fortunes of the San Francisco 49ers. Keep reading for a deeper dive into the team’s scoring trends and how they will affect the run to the playoffs.
San Franisco 49ers On the Road
Week 13 features a divisional matchup that should have had both teams hunting for a playoff spot. Instead, only the 49ers have a real shot after winning four of their last five games. In each of those wins, the 49ers averaged more than 30 points per game.
In the loss, they scored 17 against the first-place Arizona Cardinals. And now, the 49ers take a three-game winning streak into Seattle to visit the 3-8 Seahawks. The 49ers have come a long way from their loss to Seattle in Week 4.
On the road in Jacksonville, Jimmy Garoppolo threw 2 TDs and went 16-22 for 176 yards. Those aren’t big numbers, but he didn’t need them when the running game accounted for 171 yards.
This game signaled a far different team than the one that took the field two weeks before in Chicago. In that win, Garoppolo threw for 322 yards without a touchdown. The change to the offense since then is dramatic.
49ers Offensive Transformation
Last week, Jimmy Garoppolo was less than spectacular, going 17-26 for 230 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. But that was all he had to be to win against the Vikings. And against the Rams before that, he threw 2 TDs, completing 15 of 19 passes for 182 yards.
The difference is in the running attack. The 49ers have developed a two-headed monster in the backfield that looks unstoppable. Last week, Eli Mitchell carried 27 times for 133 and a touchdown.
Deebo Samuel stepped in for two scores and 66 yards on only six carries. And against the Rams, it was a similar story. Mitchell had 91 yards that day while Deebo romped for another TD and 36 yards on five carries.
It’s clear the San Francisco 49ers intend to run the ball often, and Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t seem to mind. The longer they keep the ball, the better it gets for San Francisco’s 11th ranked defense.
49ers at Seahawks (+3.5)
It’s been two years since they won a game in Seattle, but the 49ers are thriving on the road this year, and I believe that they will continue that trend in Week 13.
San Francisco has gone 4-1 away from home to get to 6-5 and back in the thick of the playoff race. On the other hand, as proven by their 1-4 home record, Seattle has had a more challenging season. Their 23rd ranked run defense will face a massive challenge in Week 13.
The Long Run
One more important stat to consider is the San Francisco 49ers have a 77.4% touchdown rate in the red zone this season, going 24-31 inside the twenty, which makes them number one in the NFL.
I’m taking San Francisco minus the 3.5 points. I believe the margin of victory will be a lot larger.
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