- Mexico and Saudi Arabia both need to win this Group C game.
- Both teams also need Argentina to lose against Mexico.
- I see Saudi Arabia going against the odds and getting a win.
As things stand, all four teams in Group C have a chance of advancing to the 2022 FIFA World Cup Round of 16.
While Saudi Arabia can advance with a win or a draw (if Argentina loses to Poland), Mexico has to win this game to advance and also need Argentina to lose.
Mexico is facing elimination at the Group Stage for the first time in 44 years, while Saudi Arabia is on the cusp of advancing for only the second time in its history.
Which of these two teams will qualify? Or will both of them be on a plane home?
Saudi Arabia vs. Mexico Prediction, World Cup:
The winning team model predicts Mexico will win this Group C game with 40% confidence. The model also predicts a 27% chance of a tie/draw.
Saudi Arabia vs. Mexico Odds, Outrights, Over/Under
- Match Result: Saudi Arabia (+360) | Draw (+310) | Mexico (-145)
- Draw No Bet: Saudi Arabia (+240) | Mexico (-350)
- Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-145) | Under 2.5 (+100)
Saudi Arabia vs. Mexico Match Info
2022 World Cup — Group Stage (C)
Date: Wednesday, November 30
Time: 2:00 PM ET
Venue: Lusail Stadium
Coverage: FOX, Telemundo
Saudi Arabia vs. Mexico Analysis
Saudi Arabia stunned the world with its historic win over Argentina in its opening match. Coach Herve Renard’s halftime talk went viral, and it’s easy to see why these players left everything out on the pitch with that kind of motivation.
They lost to Poland 2-0 in their second game, but Robert Lewandowski and Co’s scoreline was a bit flattering. In fact, Saudi Arabia had a penalty kick saved, two magnificent stops from Poland’s keeper Wojciech Szczęsny, and a couple of shots hit the posts.
It’s safe to say most of the support in the stadium on Wednesday will be for The Falcons, which should spur this team on even more. Saudi Arabia won’t settle. They need a win, and Renard’s team will push for that.
Here's how #ElTri and the rest of Group C sit as the dust settles. To get out of the group, #Mex needs:— Jon Arnold (@ArnoldcommaJon) November 26, 2022
- A win against Saudi Arabia to get to 4 points
- A Poland win
- A combination of an Argentina win + Mexico win by a margin that swings the GD pic.twitter.com/N4vrnqfRQU
Mexico always reaches the Round of 16. But, it’s inconceivable El Tri could be eliminated in the Group Stage for the first time in 44 years. That’s how things in Group C stand and nothing but a win will help Mexico here.
In fact, their fate is not in their hands entirely, as they need to win by a humongous goal difference, or they also need Argentina to lose against Poland.
Tata Martino’s side has been below par the entire tournament, and they’ve yet to deliver the attacking soccer they are capable of. They drew 0-0 with Poland, thanks to a saved Lewandowski penalty, and they were easily beaten 2-0 by Argentina.
Mexico hasn’t won a World Cup game in the last four attempts, and the team hasn’t scored a single goal in them, either. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has only kept one clean sheet in 18 World Cup matches, so if Mexico is going to score a goal, this is likely to be the game they do it in.
Both teams need to win this game, and I think this could make for an open, end-to-end contest that will be thrilling to watch.
All the odds point to a Mexico victory, but I can’t help but feel that between Renard’s infectious motivation and the crowd of supporters, Saudi has the edge here. So, I’m going with Saudi Arabia to take all three points.
Saudi Arabia vs. Mexico Game Result Odds
- Match Result: Saudi Arabia (+360)
- Draw No Bet: Saudi Arabia (+240)
- Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-145)
- Saudi Arabia to Win and Both Teams to Score: (+675)
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