The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3) are in first place in the NFC South, four games ahead of the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. The Bucs have a 2-1 record in the division with four total games remaining.
This week, they’ll host the Saints on Sunday Night Football. The Bucs are favored by 10.5 points, and a victory would clinch the division.
Let’s look at the Buccaneers’ scoring potential in Week 15.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5 (-110)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers came off their Super Bowl victory to begin their season with a win at home. They beat the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football, 31-29.
Tom Brady opened the season with 379 passing yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. Wide receivers Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin combined with tight end Rob Gronkowski for 22 receptions, 316 receiving yards, and four touchdowns.
Since then, the Bucs have remained undefeated at home.
After 13 games, Tampa Bay is the NFL’s top-scoring offense with 31.5 points per game. They rank third in scoring over their last three games (33.7), and they are also first in scoring at home this season (37.5).
They’ll be facing a Saints team that has struggled to regain an offensive identity since Drew Brees retired.
Saints’ Quarterback Woes
Back in Week 8, the Bucs lost on the road against the Saints, 36-27. Saints quarterback Trevor Siemian replaced Jameis Winston when he tore his ACL, which ended his season.
After starting the season 5-2 with Winston, the Saints dropped four games with Siemian as their quarterback after beating the Bucs. They turned to Taysom Hill in Week 13 at home against the Cowboys.
Hill went 19-for-41 with 264 passing yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions. He also had 11 rushing attempts for 101 yards.
The Saints lost, 27-17. They gave up 377 total yards to the Cowboys, who scored in every quarter.
Last week on the road against the New York Jets, Hill had a 71.4 completion percentage. Alvin Kamara carried the ball 27 times for 120 yards and one score.
Again, Hill ran 11 times. He totaled 73 yards on the ground with two rushing touchdowns. The Saints beat the Jets, 30-9.
While Tampa Bay ranks third in rushing defense, New Orleans ranks sixth.
For their matchup this week, I believe it will be more of an offensive battle through the air since both teams’ run defenses are so strong.
Given the Saints quarterbacks’ recent performances, I don’t see them excelling against the depth the Bucs now have in the secondary.
Buccaneers Team Total Over 29.5 (-110)
The Bucs have scored 30 or more points in eight games this season. They’ve averaged 36.7 points per matchup in their last three home games.
The Saints rank 18th in the NFL in passing defense, allowing 244.5 passing yards per game. The Bucs are the number one team in the league at passing yards per game (314.2), passing yards at home (326.7), and passing touchdowns per contest (2.8).
Tampa Bay has averaged a whopping 3.7 passing touchdowns per home game this season.
The Bucs have also averaged two rushing scores in their last three matchups.
Furthermore, this season, Tampa Bay has averaged 35 points in three divisional games this season. They have plenty of offensive weapons to make it past 29.5 at home this Sunday against the Saints, with Leonard Fournette expected to make his return on Sunday.
Can The Bucs Score Over 29.5 at Home?
What do you think? Can Tom Brady lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a high-scoring victory at home this week against a divisional rival?
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