Japan vs. Spain Predictions, Odds, & Picks: World Cup 2022

min read
Japan's players stand together after losing the World Cup, group E soccer match between Japan and Costa Rica, at the Ahmad Bin Ali Stadium in Al Rayyan , Qatar, Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022.
AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko
Laura Paterson @ Nov 30, 2022, 11:05 AM
  • Spain needs a draw to advance, while Japan must win.
  • Japan beat Germany, but I don’t see them winning here.
  • Expect Spain to score goals in the second half and take all three points.

It’s Spain against Japan in the last match of Group E in the FIFA World Cup. The Samurai Blue come into the match in second place, one point behind Spain.

Both teams started off the tournament with statement wins, but Spain then played to a draw with German, and Japan lost to Costa Rica.

Can Japan win against La Roja and make it to the Round of 16 twice in a row? Or will Luis Enrique’s team take the top spot in Group E?

Japan vs. Spain Prediction, World Cup:

The winning team model predicts Spain will win this Group E game with 58% confidence. The model also predicts a 27% chance of a tie/draw. 

» Get Win Predictions for Every World Cup Game

Japan vs. Spain Odds, Outrights, Over/Under

  • Match Result: Japan (+700) | Draw (+380) | Spain (-250)
  • Draw No Bet: Japan (+400) | Spain (-800)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-145) | Under 2.5 (+105)

Japan vs. Spain Match Info

2022 World Cup — Group Stage (E)

Date: Thursday, December 1

Time: 2:00 PM ET

Venue: Khalifa International Stadium, Qatar

Coverage: FOX, Telemundo

Japan vs. Spain Analysis

Many people wrote off Japan before the tournament began, given they were in the same group as Spain and Germany, who have won multiple World Cups. 

However, Hajime Moriyasu’s side beat Germany 2-1 in the opening fixture in one of the biggest upsets of the 2022 World Cup. Japan was patient in this game and used pace on the flanks to get behind the German defense.

The Samurai Blue would have guaranteed a spot in the top two with a win over Costa Rica, which they were widely expected to do. They weren’t as effective in that game, and Costa Rica frustrated them by sitting deep on defense. Keysher Fuller’s 81st-minute goal was the only shot Costa Rica had on target in the tournament.

Japan will need to be at its very best if they want to beat a team that put seven goals past Costa Rica.

Despite the draw against Germany, Spain’s class is clear, especially in the midfield. 18-year-old Gavi is undoubtedly the bedrock of this exceptional Spanish side, and he controls the midfield seamlessly, while Alvaro Morata and Ferran Torres’ form has been incredible at the top of the pitch.

Spain would advance with a draw here, but it just isn’t in this side’s DNA to sit back and defend. So, I think they will go for the win. 

Despite Japan’s win over Germany, I just don’t see them getting a result here. Expect a glut of goals in the second half when Spain will put this game to bed.

I expect Spain to win comfortably and take all three points.

Japan vs. Spain Game Result Odds

  • Match Result: Spain (-250)
  • Draw No Bet: Spain (-800)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-145)
  • Spain to Win and Japan Not to Score: (+120)

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About the Author

Laura Paterson

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Laura is a dedicated in-house writer for The Media Image. An avid sports fan and field hockey player, she gets her fix through writing on a variety of sports for BetMGM.

Laura is a dedicated in-house writer for The Media Image. An avid sports fan and field hockey player, she gets her fix through writing on a variety of sports for BetMGM.