Super Bowl Betting: Which States Are Backing Bucs and Chiefs?

On Feb. 7, 2016, the Denver Broncos were celebrating a third Super Bowl victory, a 24-10 win over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50. With the win, the Broncos tied the then-Oakland Raiders for the most championships among division rivals and extended their lead over the Kansas City Chiefs and the then-San Diego Chargers. Exactly five years later, on the day of Super Bowl LV, the Broncos are still tied with the Raiders and miles ahead of the Chargers but now face the prospect of a 2021 challenge from the Chiefs.

Broncos’ fans might loathe the idea of back-to-back Super Bowls for their longtime rival but at least some of them will financially benefit from another Chiefs’ victory. As of Sunday morning, Colorado is one of only two states (of 11 states in which BetMGM Super Bowl betting is available) picking the Chiefs to cover against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV.

The Chiefs, currently a 3-point favorite after bouncing between 3.5 and 3 over the last two weeks, have a larger share of the total spread handle in all states (54 percent) but have the larger share in just those two states:

Super Bowl Betting Handle

The majority of Super Bowl spread tickets in Colorado are also on the Chiefs, as they are in Iowa. And, despite a higher handle share for the Bucs, seven other states have more spread tickets on the Chiefs:

Super Bowl Betting Tickets

The Chiefs’ spread was overwhelmingly popular among early voters with 76 percent of tickets and 80 percent of the handle over the first 36 hours of betting. Over the next 10 days, bettors flocked to the Bucs, giving them a 52 percent handle share as of Friday. But over the final two days of betting, the Chiefs have regained their handle share (and retained their ticket share, which has hovered between 60-70 percent over the last 10 days) and have 54 percent of the handle.

“BetMGM has taken multiple seven-figure bets on the Buccaneers to win and cover,” said Jason Scott, vice president of BetMGM trading. “Tampa Bay has moved from +3.5 to +3. While we expect more action before kickoff of the Super Bowl, the sportsbook currently needs the Chiefs to win and cover.”

If the Chiefs win and cover, they’ll be the fourth favorite to win and cover in the last five Super Bowls. Success for the favorites comes after underdogs covered in 12 of the previous 15 games.

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Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of High Motor by BetMGM, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else. He has written for Sports Illustrated, HERO Sports, Bleacher Report, and SB Nation. Follow him on Twitter: @DoughtyBetMGM.