The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) are heading into Week 13 after winning on the road against the Indianapolis Colts, 38-31. The Bucs currently sit atop the NFC North. They are the number three seed in the conference.
Tampa Bay also remains a top contender among NFL playoff odds to win the Super Bowl.
Undefeated at home, each of the Bucs’ losses came as the away team. So let’s take a closer look at how they match up against their divisional rival Atlanta Falcons this week.
How Do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Match Up Against the Atlanta Falcons?
Averaging 31.5 points per game, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers possess the NFL’s top-scoring offense. However, on the road, they drop to the 10th spot.
At home, Atlanta is last for points per game with fewer than 13. That makes them incredibly vulnerable this week.
The current spread for the Falcons (+10.5) clearly shows that. To add, Atlanta is 0-4 ATS at home. However, the Bucs have struggled on the road ATS this season with a record of 1-5.
Tampa Bay also has the top passing offense in the league, and they occupy the number four spot when they are the away team. Atlanta’s passing defense is ranked 14th overall, but they are 8th at home.
So, I think Tom Brady could find some resistance this week, especially if the Bucs overlook the Falcons since Tampa Bay hosts the Buffalo Bills in Week 14. The key for their road matchup in Atlanta might come from running the ball.
Can the Bucs Get a Running Game Going in Atlanta?
Aside from the dominant ability to control the passing game with Brady’s Hall of Fame arm, the Bucs’ rushing offense ranks 23rd in the NFL. They average less than 100 yards on the ground.
They’ve averaged even fewer rushing yards as the away team. However, they seemed to turn that trend around last week in Indianapolis. Bucs running back Leonard Fournette carried the ball 17 times for 100 yards and three rushing touchdowns.
He also had seven receptions for 31 yards and a score. In their road loss at the Washington Football Team two weeks prior, Fournette carried the ball only 11 times.
Fournette only carried the ball eight times for 26 yards in their previous road matchup at the New Orleans Saints. Brady threw four touchdowns and two interceptions in that game.
The Saints turned two Brady picks into touchdowns, including a 40-yard interception return. That sealed the victory for New Orleans at the end of regulation.
In essence, that means the Bucs need to establish a successful ground game on the road. Atlanta’s rushing defense ranks 23rd, allowing 125 yards per contest. At home, they are last in the NFL at stopping the run.
Fournette won NFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance at Indianapolis last week. He’ll be the key for the Bucs, especially if they want to win on the road.
Are the Bucs the Team to Beat in the NFC?
The top two seeds in the NFC are the Arizona Cardinals (9-2) and the Green Bay Packers (9-3). Tampa Bay has a demanding remaining schedule, including three road games.
They are heavily favored to win this week in Atlanta. But if they have any hopes of returning to the Super Bowl, they’ll have to win some road games against tough teams.
This week against the Falcons is good for the Bucs to get that trend going in their favor.
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