Tennessee vs Illinois Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Music City Bowl

BetMGM Betting Dec 30, 2025, 9:55 AM

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Illinois head coach Bret Bielema watches from the sideline during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Iowa, Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023, in Iowa City, Iowa. Iowa won 15-13. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Tennessee is a -3.5 point favorite vs. Illinois
Tennessee vs. Illinois Total (Over/Under): 61.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

Tennessee (8-4) visit Nissan Stadium to take on Illinois (8-4) on Dec. 30 in Nashville, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:30pm EST.

Tennessee is a betting favorite in the Music City Bowl, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Tennessee vs. Illinois Over/Under is 61.5 total points.

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Tennessee vs. Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Tennessee	-3.5 -105	61.5 -110	-175
Illinois	+3.5 -115	61.5 -110	145

Tennessee vs Illinois Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Tennessee will win this game with 55.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Tennessee and Illinois, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Tennessee vs Illinois Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Tennessee will cover the spread with 51.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Tennessee Best Bets Today

Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.95 Units / 49% ROI)
Tennessee has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 7% ROI)
Tennessee has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.65 Units / 0% ROI)
Tennessee have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.60 Units / 34% ROI)
Tennessee has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)

Illinois Best Bets Today

Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+7.85 Units / 13% ROI)
Illinois has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+7.55 Units / 14% ROI)
Illinois has hit the Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Illinois has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
Illinois has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)

Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Tennessee is 5-7 against the spread this college football season (-2.7 Units / -20.38% ROI).

Tennessee is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.94% ROI
Tennessee is 8-4 when betting the Over for +3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI
Tennessee is 4-8 when betting the Under for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI

Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Illinois iss 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 19.85% ROI).

Illinois is 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 2.33% ROI
Illinois is 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
Illinois is 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI

Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois

Tennessee has forced 17 fumbles this season– most in the SEC

Tennessee has forced 17 fumbles this season– 2nd-most in FBS

Tennessee has forced 17 fumbles this season– 2nd-most among Power Conference Teams

Tennessee allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 2 of 381 attempts (1%) last season– best in the SEC; Average: 2%

Tennessee opponents averaged 6.8 Passing Attempts per TD (34 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Tennessee

Illinois has no interceptions and 15 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 9.3

Illinois has no interceptions and 15 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8.2

Illinois tackled opponents for a loss on just 48 of 441 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) last season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Illinois tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 67 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 14%.

Illinois has no interceptions and 15 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 8.1

Matchup Notes for Tennessee vs. Illinois