- The Texans are -3.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 36.5 points
- Watch the game on
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The Houston Texans visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots on Aug. 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Foxborough.
The Texans are betting favorites in this preseason matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Texans vs. Patriots Over/Under is 36.5 total points for the game.
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Texans vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Texans | -3.5 -110 | 36.5 -110 | -165 |
| Patriots | +3.5 -110 | 36.5 -110 | +140 |
Texans vs. Patriots Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this preseason game with 57.2% confidence.
Texans vs Patriots Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 53.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Texans and Patriots, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this preseason game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Davis Mills has hit the Interceptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Dameon Pierce has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- Dameon Pierce has hit the Longest Rush Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rex Burkhead has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Davis Mills has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 36% ROI)
Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this preseason matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Carries Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 57% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 84% ROI)
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+9.65 Units / 193% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+7.20 Units / 120% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.95 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+6.45 Units / 81% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.35 Units / 34% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 3Q Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last NFL season, the Texans went 8-8 (-0.75 Units / -4.02% ROI).
- Texans are 3-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.55 Units / -44.41% ROI
- Texans are 7-10 when betting the Over for -4.05 Units / -21.6% ROI
- Texans are 10-7 when betting the Under for +2.3 Units / ROI
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last NFL season, the Patriots went 7-9 (-2.8 Units / -15.22% ROI).
- Patriots are 8-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -15.27% ROI
- Patriots are 8-9 when betting the Over for -1.9 Units / -10.16% ROI
- Patriots are 9-8 when betting the Under for +0.2 Units / 1.07% ROI
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Texans are 2-14-1 (.118) at home since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .535.
The Texans were 2-10 (.167) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — tied for sixth-worst in NFL. The Patriots intercepted 19 passes last season — third-most in NFL.
The Texans are 2-20-1 (.087) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.
The Texans were 1-9-1 (.091) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Patriots were winless (0-3) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .396.
The Patriots were winless (0-4) when committing 2 or more turnovers in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .301.
The Patriots were winless (0-5) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .381.
The Patriots were 2-4 (.333) when within 7 points at the two minute warning in the 2022 season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.
Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
Patriots RBs rushed for 10 or more yards on 13.0% of 354 carries last season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Texans allowed 10+ yards on 15.8% of carries to RBs last season — worst in NFL.
The Patriots scored on 20% of their drives in the first half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — tied for second-worst in NFL. The Texans defense allowed scores on 26.1% of opponent drives in the first half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — tied for third-best in NFL.
The Patriots allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 16.1% of pass attempts in the last 8 weeks of the regular season — fifth-best in NFL. The Texans have pressured opposing QBs on just 16.3% of passing plays in the last 8 weeks of the regular season — tied for third-worst in NFL.
The Texans scored on 28.1% of their drives last season — second-worst in NFL. The Patriots defense allowed scores on 30.6% of opponent drives last season — second-best in NFL.
Texans RBs rushed for 10 or more yards on just 7.2% of 332 carries last season — third-worst in NFL. The Patriots allowed 10+ yards on just 7.4% of carries to RBs last season — third-best in NFL.
The Texans averaged just 3.8 yards per carry last season — second-worst in NFL. The Patriots allowed just 4.2 yards per carry last season — fourth-best in NFL.
Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats
The Texans have scored on 27% of their drives since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 37%.
The Texans ran successful plays on 11% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans have converted first downs on just 66 of 301 plays (22%) in close and late situations since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Texans had a third down conversion rate of 29% in the 1st half in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots ran successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the red zone in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 35% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Patriots scored 19 TDs in the red zone in the 2022 season — fewest in NFL.
The Patriots ran 12% of their plays in the red zone in the 2022 season — 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats
The Texans defense allowed 178.1 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 128.5.
The Texans defense allowed 15 of 40 (38%) TDs through the air in the 2022 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
The Texans defense allowed an average of 26.4 fantasy points per game as a unit to RBs in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17.5.
Offenses facing the Texans threw the ball 46% of the time (522 Pass Attempts/1,131 plays) in the 2022 season — tied for lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense has allowed scores on 22% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
The Patriots defense allowed successful plays on 35% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Patriots defense has averaged 1.2 interceptions per game (42/34) since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 0.8.
The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of just 76.3 in the red zone (129 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 94.9.
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