After a brief, one-week hiatus following the RSM Classic, we are back for the Tour’s final event of the year, the Mayakoba Golf Classic. Unlike years past, this week’s Mayakoba Golf Classic boasts a particularly strong field, with the likes of Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, and Rickie Fowler all teeing it up for one last time in 2020.
The course: The Mayakoba Golf Classic is played on the beautiful El Camaleón Golf Club in Playa Del Carmen, Mexico. This par 71, coastal resort course is one of the shortest on tour, measuring 6,987 yards, and has Paspalum style greens. Because of its length, or lack thereof, golfers don’t need to be long-hitters off the tee to win at El Camaleón. Instead, former winners here have all been accurate drivers of the ball and had a propensity to go low. Additionally, because of its coastal location, the wind tends to pick up at times, so being able to handle the elements is a plus.
Outrights:
Corey Conners (+2800)
The Canadian is in white hot form right now with back to back T10 finishes at the RSM and Masters after a T24 in Houston and T8 at the Zozo. In each of those four starts, Conners has gained at least 5.5 strokes total per Fantasynational.com. Although Conners doesn’t boast the best record at El Camaleón, he’s played exceptionally at Wailele Country Club in Hawaii, so I’m willing to back a breakthrough at this course.
Keegan Bradley (+5000)
Keegan is coming off a great performance at the RSM Classic where he gained 7.3 strokes tee-to-green and finished T15. The finishing position could have been even better had he not lost over 4 strokes putting on the week. There’s reason to believe that Keegan can rebound off that awful putting performance, as he ranks 7th in the field in strokes gained putting on Paspalum greens in the field according to Fantasynational.com. His affinity for these greens has led to him finishing T15 and T8 in his last two starts at El Camaleón and lands him at the top spot in Action Network’s course suitability rankings.
Props:
T10 Finish – Patton Kizzire (+600)
There are a ton of historical trends pointing to Kizzire this week. Recently, he has been dialed in, finishing T10, T11 and T24 in his last three starts on Tour. If you look back to previous years, you’ll find that Kizzire is a winner at El Camaleón in 2017 and a winner at Wailele (spoken about at length above) in 2018. Another win seems like a lot to ask from the former Auburn Tiger, but I do expect him to be in contention given his course history and current form.
T20 Finish – Joel Dahmen (+240)
The laidback, bucket hat wearing Washingtonian should feel right at home on a resort course like El Camaleón. The stats surely back up my sentiment as he’s 3-for-3 here on cuts made here including a tie for sixth last year. Not to mention, all 12 of his rounds played at El Camaleón are under par. There’s good reason to think Joel can cash a T20 this week.
Longshots/Cheek(s) of the Week:
Doug Ghim (+8000 to win, +400 T20) and Brice Garnett (+10000 to win, +400 T20)
This week’s Cheek(s) of the Week, features Doug Ghim and Brice Garnett, two relatively unknown names on tour. Ghim has been making some noise given that he’s finished T18, T14 and T23 in his last three starts. In his last 5 starts, Ghim has gained 2.7 strokes on approach and 4.6 strokes tee to green, per Fantasynational.com. Brice Garnett, on the other hand, is a total horse for course play. In his last five trips to El Camaleón, Garnett has recorded a T11, solo 5th, a T25, a solo 7th, and solo 6th. It doesn’t seem to matter what shape his game is in heading into this week, the guy just loves this place. Bet on him to keep this stellar run alive.
All odds taken from BetMGM Sportsbook
