With all but one team winning on their home turf in the Wild Card round, do you think home-field advantage will play a significant role again in the Divisional Round? The NFL home teams are all favored by a margin of 2.5 to 5.5 points this week, according to BetMGM’s football odds.
Keep reading to see some of my best bets for these small home favorites in the Divisional Round.
49ers at Packers (-5.5)
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 22nd
- Time: 8:15 P.M. EST
- Venue: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI
The San Francisco 49ers‘ come into this game after upsetting the Dallas Cowboys on the road. Can they pull off another upset against a rested Green Bay Packers team? I don’t believe so.
Although the Packers are the biggest favorites in the Divisional Round, I still like them to cover the 5.5-point spread.
Green Bay’s offense is one of the most explosive in the league. The Packers are averaging the ninth-most passing yards with 253.8 per game and have 52 total offensive touchdowns.
Yes, the 49ers are sixth in passing defense, but they rarely create turnovers. They only had nine interceptions in the regular season and ranked 20th in turnovers created. Playing against Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau, who’s thrown 37 touchdowns and only four interceptions all year, I don’t see the 49ers’ defense creating any turnovers.
I don’t believe the Niners can keep up offensively, either. The 49ers have a potent rushing attack, but if they have to throw the ball to keep up with Green Bay, I’m not sold on Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s middle of the pack in both interceptions and QBR (16th and 13th, respectively) and has thrown five interceptions in his past three games.
I’ll trust Rodgers and take Green Bay to cover the points.
Rams at Buccaneers (-3)
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 23rd
- Time: 3:00 P.M. EST
- Venue: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL
Both teams had big wins in the Wild Card round, and I think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will keep that momentum going at home this week.
The Buccaneers and the Los Angeles Rams are almost evenly matched statistically, but the Bucs still edge them out in about every category. Los Angeles has a great passing offense and ranks fifth in passing yards per game, while Tampa ranks first. The Rams average 27.4 points per game, while the Buccaneers average 30.1.
Tom Brady’s Buccaneers take care of the ball very well, which is needed against the ferocious Los Angeles defense, which we just saw smother the Arizona Cardinals. Tampa is tied for the eighth-fewest turnovers all year. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford and the Rams are tied for 18th in that category.
I’m going to roll with the Buccaneers because of their ability to take care of the ball.
NFL Home Teams: Best Bets for the Divisional Round
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