NFL underdogs are 107-86-1 against the spread this season, covering 55%. With 2021 being the year of the underdog, it’s vital to give these teams consideration when planning your weekly wagers.
Which underdogs will hit this week? First, let’s look at the top three NFL underdog bets according to the latest NFL odds.
Las Vegas Raiders (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Las Vegas Raiders are heavy underdogs for their Sunday matchup at the Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders are two games behind the Chiefs in the AFC West, and Kansas City is on a five-game winning streak.
Last week, the Chiefs took care of the Denver Broncos, another divisional opponent, 22-9. Patrick Mahomes had a lackluster game, throwing for 184 yards and an interception. But the Chiefs forced three turnovers against the Broncos, including two interceptions.
Las Vegas passes for the second-most yards per game, while the Chiefs’ passing defense ranks 24th in yards allowed per game.
The Raiders have averaged 21 points in their last three games, and QB Derek Carr has thrown six touchdown passes in their three division games. Meanwhile, Mahomes hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in his previous two games.
I think this game is an excellent opportunity for the Raiders to pick up a needed win against Kansas City, but I believe they’ll at least cover the spread.
Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
Among NFL underdog bets this week, I like the Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) at the Cleveland Browns.
The Ravens lost on the road to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, 20-19. The Ravens lost on a failed two-point conversion in the game’s final moments. Cleveland was on a bye, and the last game they played was against this Ravens team, where they lost 16-10.
After losing this year, Baltimore is 2-1 ATS and 3-0 outright. This season, the Browns are 2-4 ATS as favorites and are 2-4 as home favorites.
Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield hasn’t fared well in his previous three games, throwing three TDs and three interceptions. I like the Ravens in this spot considering the small spread and record this year after a loss. Given both teams’ ability to run the ball (each average 147.1 yards per game), I expect another close match. However, Baltimore has the best run defense in the NFL (84.3 running yards allowed per game), so I believe Baltimore has a slight edge and will win this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings rank 25th for points allowed per game at 25.4. They’ve given up an average of 31 points in their previous three contests, and last week they lost 29-27 to the Detroit Lions.
While the Steelers have given up nearly 34 points on average in their last three games, Minnesota’s passing defense has allowed 286 yards in that same span. The Vikings also rank 29th at stopping the run.
Both QB Ben Roethlisberger and RB Najee Harris have shown signs of life this year. Roethlisberger has thrown for nine touchdowns in his past five games and only two interceptions. Harris ran for a respectable 71 yards against the Ravens.
Pittsburgh is also 2-1-1 in non-conference games, and they are 5-2 ATS when they are the underdog this season. Minnesota has failed to cover in their last two games, and they are 1-4 ATS when favored.
If Big Ben plays a clean game, I like the Steelers to cover +3.
Week 14 NFL Underdog Bets
What do you think? Do these three teams have a shot?
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